Predicting mortality in moderate-severe TBI patients without early withdrawal of life-sustaining treatments including ICU complications: The MYSTIC-score

Abstract

Purpose: To develop and internally validate the MortalitY in Moderate-Severe TBI plus ICU Complications (MYSTIC)-Score to predict in-hospital mortality of msTBI patients without early (<24 h) withdrawal-of-life-sustaining treatments.

Methods: We analyzed data from a Neuro-Trauma Intensive Care Unit prospectively collected between 11/2009-5/2019. Consecutive adult msTBI patients were included if Glasgow Coma Scale≤12, and neither died nor had withdrawal-of-life-sustaining treatments within 24 h of admission (n = 485). Using univariate and multivariable logistic regression in a random-split cohort approach (2/3 derivation;1/3 validation), we identified independent predictors of in-hospital mortality while adjusting for validated predictors of mortality (IMPACT-variables). We constructed the MYSTIC-Score and examined discrimination and calibration.

Results: The MYSTIC-Score included the ICU complications brain edema, herniation, systemic inflammatory response syndrome, sepsis, acute kidney injury, cardiac arrest, and urinary tract infection. In the derivation cohort(n = 324), discrimination and calibration were excellent (area-under-the-receiver-operating-curve [AUC-ROC] = 0.95;Hosmer-Lemeshow p-value = 0.09, with p > 0.05 indicating good calibration). Internal validation revealed an AUC-ROC = 0.93 and Hosmer-Lemeshow-p-value = 0.76 (n = 161).

Conclusions: Certain ICU complications are independent predictors of in-hospital mortality and strengthen outcome prediction in msTBI when combined with validated admission predictors of mortality. However, external validation is needed to determine robustness and practical applicability of our model given the high potential for residual confounders.

Keywords: Hospital complications; Neurocritical care; Outcomes research; Prediction score; Traumatic brain injury.