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. 2022 Sep 12:9:891963.
doi: 10.3389/fcvm.2022.891963. eCollection 2022.

Worldwide long-term trends in the incidence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease during 1990-2019: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis

Wentao Wu  1   2 , Aozi Feng  1 , Wen Ma  1   2 , Daning Li  2 , Shuai Zheng  1 , Fengshuo Xu  1   2 , Didi Han  1   2 , Jun Lyu  1
Affiliations

Worldwide long-term trends in the incidence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease during 1990-2019: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis

Wentao Wu et al. Front Cardiovasc Med. .

Abstract

Background: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) was previously a neglected disease that is now becoming a worldwide pandemic. A better understanding of its incidence and long-term trends will help to increase public awareness of the disease and the development of future prevention strategies.

Methods: The incidence rates of NAFLD during 1990-2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database according to the following parameters: sex, age, socio-demographic index, and geographical region. Estimated annual percentage changes and joinpoint models were used to assess the long-term trend of NAFLD, and an age-period-cohort model was used to assess the extents of the age, period, and cohort effects.

Results: Adult males, postmenopausal females, Latin American populations, and people in developing countries had a high risk of developing NAFLD. The joinpoint model indicated a new trend of increasing NAFLD incidence in 2005. Age was a risk factor affecting NAFLD incidence, with this effect increasing in more-recent periods. Younger birth cohorts had lower risks of NAFLD.

Conclusions: Recent prevention measures for NAFLD have achieved good initial results. However, it remains a high priority to increase the public awareness of this condition, develop its diagnostic criteria, identify cost-effective screening methods, and seek policy support to act against NAFLD, which will be a major public health problem in the future.

Keywords: age-period cohort model; epidemic trend; incidence; nonalcoholic fatty liver disease; prevention strategy.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Difference in ASIR of NAFLD between genders in 1990 and 2019. (A) ASIR in 1990. (B) ASIR in 2019.
Figure 2
Figure 2
ASIR differences between different SDI subgroups from 1990 to 2019.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Correlation between SDI index and ASIR.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Differences in ASIR between different geographical regions.
Figure 5
Figure 5
The results of joinpoint model and the long-term trend of ASIR.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Age trends in NAFLD incidence.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Period trends in the incidence of NAFLD. (A) Period trends of population aged 15–49. (B) Period trends of population aged 50–89.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Cohort trends in NAFLD incidence.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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