Economic loss attributable to cigarette smoking in the USA: an economic modelling study

Abstract

Background: Despite large geographical disparities in the prevalence of cigarette smoking across the USA, there is a paucity of state-level estimates of economic loss attributable to smoking to inform tobacco control policies at the national and state levels. We aimed to estimate the state-level economic loss attributable to cigarette smoking in the USA.

Methods: In this economic modelling study, we used a dynamic macroeconomic model of personal income per capita at the state level. Based on publicly available data on state-level income, its determinants, and smoking status for 2011-20, we first estimated the elasticity of personal income per capita with respect to the prevalence of non-smoking adults (aged ≥18 years) in the USA using a mixed-effects, generalised linear, dynamic panel data model. We used the estimated elasticity to measure the state-specific, annual, avoidable economic loss attributable to cigarette smoking in 2020 under the counterfactual 5% prevalence of cigarette smoking. We then estimated the state-specific cumulative economic loss attributable to cigarette smoking in 2020 using the coefficient of lagged income in the dynamic model. National estimates on economic loss attributable to cigarette smoking were obtained by summing state-specific estimates.

Findings: In the mixed-effects model, the elasticity of personal income per capita with respect to the prevalence of non-smoking adults was 0·143 (p=0·063). The estimated annual income loss per capita in 2020 ranged from US$331 in Utah to $1674 in Kentucky. The state mean population-weighted loss per capita was $1100. The annual combined loss of income and unpaid household production at the national level was $436·7 billion (equivalent to 2·1% of US gross domestic product [GDP] in 2020). The cumulative loss of income and unpaid household production was $864·5 billion (equivalent to 4·3% of US GDP in 2020).

Interpretation: Smoking causes substantial economic loss in the USA. Tobacco control efforts that lower the prevalence of smoking equitably can contribute considerably to improved macroeconomic performance in the short and long term by reducing health expenditures and avoiding productivity losses.

Funding: American Cancer Society.