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. 2022 Sep 30:55:e00722022.
doi: 10.1590/0037-8682-0072-2022. eCollection 2022.

Climatic factors and the incidence of dengue in Cartagena, Colombian Caribbean Region

Eder Cano-Pérez  1 , Steev Loyola  1   2   3 , Dacia Malambo-García  1   2 , Doris Gómez-Camargo  1   2
Affiliations

Climatic factors and the incidence of dengue in Cartagena, Colombian Caribbean Region

Eder Cano-Pérez et al. Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. .

Abstract

Background: The influence of climate on the epidemiology of dengue has scarcely been studied in Cartagena.

Methods: The relationship between dengue cases and climatic and macroclimatic factors was explored using an ecological design and bivariate and time-series analyses during lag and non-lag months. Data from 2008-2017 was obtained from the national surveillance system and meteorological stations.

Results: Cases correlated only with climatic variables during lag and non-lag months. Decreases in precipitation and humidity and increases in temperature were correlated with an increase in cases.

Conclusions: Our findings provide useful information for establishing and strengthening dengue prevention and control strategies.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of Interest: The authors have no competing interest to declare.

Figures

FIGURE 1:
FIGURE 1:. Location of the study area, Cartagena, Colombia.
FIGURE 2:
FIGURE 2:. Annual (A) and monthly (B) frequency of dengue cases in Cartagena, Colombia, between 2008 and 2017.
FIGURE 3:
FIGURE 3:. Time-series plots and bivariate cross-correlations between dengue cases and average temperature (A, B), relative humidity (C, D), precipitation (E, F), rainy days (G, H), SOI (I, J), and ONI (K, L) in Cartagena. In the time-series plots, the vertical green stripes correspond to El Niño periods, yellow stripes to La Niña periods, and white stripes correspond to Neutral periods. In the correlation graphs, an asterisk (*) denotes a p-value <0.050, while two asterisks (**) denote a p-value <0.001.
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