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. 2022 Oct 6;17(10):e0272481.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0272481. eCollection 2022.

The impact of social drivers, conditional cash transfers and their mechanisms on the mental health of the young; an integrated retrospective and forecasting approach using the 100 million Brazilian Cohort: A study protocol

Daiane Borges Machado  1   2 , Jacyra Azevedo Paiva de Araujo  1 , Flávia Jôse Oliveira Alves  1 , Luis Fernando Silva Castro-de-Araujo  3   4 , Elisângela da Silva Rodrigues  1   5 , Erika Fialho Morais Xavier  1 , Rodrigo Lins Rodrigues  1   6 , Davide Rasella  1 , John Naslund  2 , Vikram Patel  2 , Mauricio L Barreto  1
Affiliations

The impact of social drivers, conditional cash transfers and their mechanisms on the mental health of the young; an integrated retrospective and forecasting approach using the 100 million Brazilian Cohort: A study protocol

Daiane Borges Machado et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Background: Physical, emotional, and social changes, including exposure to poverty, abuse, or violence, increases youth vulnerability to mental illness. These factors interfere with development, limit opportunities, and hamper achievement of a fulfilling life as adults. Addressing these issues can lead to improved outcomes at the population level and better cost-effectiveness for health services. Cash transfer programs have been a promising way to address social drivers for poor mental health. However, it is still unclear which pathways and mechanisms explain the association between socioeconomic support and lower mental illness among youth. Therefore, we will evaluate the effect of social drivers on youth mental health-related hospitalizations and suicide, test mechanisms and pathways of a countrywide socioeconomic intervention, and examine the timing of the intervention during the life course.

Methods: We will combine individual-level data from youth national hospitalization, mental health disorders and attempted suicide, suicide registries and notifications of violence, with large-scale databases, including "The 100 Million Brazilian Cohort", over an 18-year period (2001-2018). Several approaches will be used for the retrospective quasi-experimental impact evaluations, such as Regression Discontinuity Designs, Propensity Score Matching and difference-in-differences, combined with multivariable regressions for cohort analyses. We will run multivariate regressions based on hierarchical analysis approach to evaluate the association between important social drivers (mental health care, demographic and economic aspects) on mental health-related hospitalizations and suicide among youth. Furthermore, we will perform microsimulations to generate projections regarding how mental health-related hospitalizations and suicide trends will be in the future based on the current state, and how BFP implementation scenarios will affect these trends.

Discussion: The results of this project will be of vital importance to guide policies and programs to improve mental health and reduce mental health-related hospitalizations and suicide in youth. It will provide information to improve the effectiveness of these programs worldwide. If cash transfers can decrease mental health problems among youth and reduce suicide.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Potential mechanisms and pathways through which Bolsa Familia Program (BFP) may affect mental health-related hospitalizations and suicide among children and youth.
Fig 2
Fig 2. Flowchart of non-beneficiary (non-BFP) and beneficiary of the Bolsa Familia Program (BFP) to test the association between BFP and youth mental health-related hospitalizations and suicide.
Fig 3
Fig 3. Integrated microsimulation model (MS).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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