Reply to Burgess et al: Catastrophic climate risks are neglected, plausible, and safe to study

Luke Kemp^{1

2}, Chi Xu³, Joanna Depledge⁴, Kristie L Ebi⁵, Goodwin Gibbins⁶, Timothy A Kohler^{7

8

9}, Johan Rockström¹⁰, Marten Scheffer¹¹, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber^{10

12}, Will Steffen¹³, Timothy M Lenton¹⁴

Affiliations

¹ Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1SB, United Kingdom.
² Darwin College, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 9EU, United Kingdom.
³ School of Life Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
⁴ Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, United Kingdom.
⁵ Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.
⁶ Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 0DJ, United Kingdom.
⁷ Department of Anthropology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-4910.
⁸ Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501.
⁹ Cluster of Excellence ROOTS - Social, Environmental, and Cultural Connectivity in Past Societies, Christian-Albrechts-Universität, 24118 Kiel, Germany.
¹⁰ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.
¹¹ Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Wageningen, 6708PB Wageningen, The Netherlands.
¹² Earth System Science Department, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100190,China.
¹³ Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
¹⁴ Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, United Kingdom.

Comment

Luke Kemp et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022.

. 2022 Oct 18;119(42):e2214884119.

doi: 10.1073/pnas.2214884119. Epub 2022 Oct 10.

¹ Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1SB, United Kingdom.
² Darwin College, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 9EU, United Kingdom.
³ School of Life Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
⁴ Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, United Kingdom.
⁵ Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.
⁶ Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 0DJ, United Kingdom.
⁷ Department of Anthropology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-4910.
⁸ Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501.
⁹ Cluster of Excellence ROOTS - Social, Environmental, and Cultural Connectivity in Past Societies, Christian-Albrechts-Universität, 24118 Kiel, Germany.
¹⁰ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.
¹¹ Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Wageningen, 6708PB Wageningen, The Netherlands.
¹² Earth System Science Department, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100190,China.
¹³ Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
¹⁴ Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, United Kingdom.

No abstract available

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interest.

Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios.
Kemp L, Xu C, Depledge J, Ebi KL, Gibbins G, Kohler TA, Rockström J, Scheffer M, Schellnhuber HJ, Steffen W, Lenton TM. Kemp L, et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022 Aug 23;119(34):e2108146119. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2108146119. Epub 2022 Aug 1. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022. PMID: 35914185 Free PMC article.
Catastrophic climate risks should be neither understated nor overstated.
Burgess MG, Pielke R Jr, Ritchie J. Burgess MG, et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022 Oct 18;119(42):e2214347119. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2214347119. Epub 2022 Oct 10. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022. PMID: 36215483 Free PMC article. No abstract available.

1. Burgess M. G., Pielke R. Jr., Ritchie J., Catastrophic climate risks should be neither understated nor overstated. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 10.1073/pnas.2214347119 (2022). - DOI - PMC - PubMed
1. Kemp L., et al. , Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 119, e2108146119 (2022). - PMC - PubMed
1. Jehn F. U., Schneider M., Wang J. R., Kemp L., Breuer L., Betting on the best case: Higher end warming is underrepresented in research. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 084036 (2021).
1. Jehn F. U., et al. , Focus of the IPCC assessment reports has shifted to lower temperatures. Earths Future 10, e2022EF002876 (2022).
1. Lynas M., Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency (Harper Collins, 2020).