A model-based analysis of the health impacts of COVID-19 disruptions to primary cervical screening by time since last screen for current and future disruptions

Abstract

We evaluated how temporary disruptions to primary cervical cancer (CC) screening services may differentially impact women due to heterogeneity in their screening history and test modality. We used three CC models to project the short- and long-term health impacts assuming an underlying primary screening frequency (i.e., 1, 3, 5, or 10 yearly) under three alternative COVID-19-related screening disruption scenarios (i.e., 1-, 2-, or 5-year delay) versus no delay in the context of both cytology-based and human papillomavirus (HPV)-based screening. Models projected a relative increase in symptomatically detected cancer cases during a 1-year delay period that was 38% higher (Policy1-Cervix), 80% higher (Harvard), and 170% higher (MISCAN-Cervix) for underscreened women whose last cytology screen was 5 years prior to the disruption period compared with guidelines-compliant women (i.e., last screen 3 years prior to disruption). Over a woman's lifetime, temporary COVID-19-related delays had less impact on lifetime risk of developing CC than screening frequency and test modality; however, CC risks increased disproportionately the longer time had elapsed since a woman's last screen at the time of the disruption. Excess risks for a given delay period were generally lower for HPV-based screeners than for cytology-based screeners. Our independent models predicted that the main drivers of CC risk were screening frequency and screening modality, and the overall impact of disruptions from the pandemic on CC outcomes may be small. However, screening disruptions disproportionately affect underscreened women, underpinning the importance of reaching such women as a critical area of focus, regardless of temporary disruptions.

Keywords: COVID-19; cervical cancer; computational biology; none; simulation modeling; systems biology.

Figure 1.. Scenario overview reflecting the heterogeneity in screening history (aligned so that 2020 was 1, 3, 5, or 10 years since their last screen) facing alternative COVID-19 delay disruptions for three birth cohorts of women.

Figure 2.. Short-term impacts: relative rate ratio of cancer detected during the screening delay period for underscreeners compared with the same delay duration for guidelines-compliant screeners.

Figure 3.. Long-term impacts: projected impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to primary cervical cancer screening on the lifetime risk of developing cervical cancer (averaged across the 1965/1975/1985 birth cohorts of women) by time since last screen for cytology-based screening (top panels) and human papillomavirus (HPV)-based screening (bottom panels) for three Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET-Cervical disease simulation models).

Figure 4.. Long-term impacts: projected impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to primary cervical cancer screening on the incremental lifetime risk of developing cervical cancer (averaged across the 1965/1975/1985 birth cohorts of women) by time since last screen for cytology-based screening (top panels) and human papillomavirus (HPV)-based screening (bottom panels) for three Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)-Cervical disease simulation models.

Appendix 1—figure 1.. Schematic of short-term cancer burden calculations*.