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. 2022 Sep 26:10:1000892.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1000892. eCollection 2022.

Time tracking and multidimensional influencing factors analysis on female breast cancer mortality: Evidence from urban and rural China between 1994 to 2019

Xiaodan Bai  1 , Xiyu Zhang  2 , Wenjing Xiang  1 , Yanjie Wang  1 , Yu Cao  1 , Guihong Geng  1 , Bing Wu  2 , Yongqiang Lai  2 , Ye Li  2 , Baoguo Shi  1
Affiliations

Time tracking and multidimensional influencing factors analysis on female breast cancer mortality: Evidence from urban and rural China between 1994 to 2019

Xiaodan Bai et al. Front Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: There are huge differences in female breast cancer mortality between urban and rural China. In order to better prevent breast cancer equally in urban and rural areas, it is critical to trace the root causes of past inequities and predict how future differences will change. Moreover, carcinogenic factors from micro-individual to macro-environment also need to be analyzed in detail. However, there is no systematic research covering these two aspects in the current literature.

Methods: Breast cancer mortality data in urban and rural China from 1994 to 2019 are collected, which from China Health Statistical Yearbook. The Age-Period-Cohort model is used to examine the effects of different age groups, periods, and birth cohorts on breast cancer mortality. Nordpred project is used to predict breast cancer mortality from 2020 to 2039.

Results: The age effect gradually increases and changes from negative to positive at the age of 40-44. The period effect fluctuates very little and shows the largest difference between urban and rural areas in 2019. The birth cohort effect gradually decreases with urban-rural effects alternating between strong and weak. In the predicted results, the urban-rural mortality gap becomes first narrow and then wide and shows a trend of younger death.

Conclusions: From the perspective of a temporal system, the changing trend of breast cancer mortality is highly consistent with the history of social and economic structural changes in China. From the perspective of the theory of social determinants of health, individuals, families, institutions and governments need to participate in the prevention of breast cancer.

Keywords: Age-Period-Cohort model; breast cancer; prediction; rural areas; the theory of social determinants of health; urban areas.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Breast cancer mortality rate for women aged 20–84 years old, 1994–2019, urban and rural China.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Birth cohort plot of breast cancer mortality among urban and rural women, China.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Age, period and cohort effect on breast cancer mortality in urban and rural China.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Prediction of breast cancer mortality in Chinese women (age standardization).
Figure 5
Figure 5
Prediction of breast cancer mortality in Chinese women (different age groups).
Figure 6
Figure 6
Influencing factors of breast cancer in urban and rural areas in the course of social development in China.
Figure 7
Figure 7
The construction process of the temporal system and the theory of social determinants of health.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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