Developing a Cold-Related Mortality Database in Bangladesh

Abstract

The aim of this study was to develop a database of historical cold-related mortality in Bangladesh using information obtained from online national newspapers and to analyze such data to understand the spatiotemporal distribution, demographic dynamics, and causes of deaths related to cold temperatures in winter. We prepared a comprehensive database containing information relating to the winter months (December to February) of 2009-2021 for the eight administrative divisions of Bangladesh and systematically removed redundant records. We found that 1249 people died in Bangladesh during this period due to cold and cold-related illnesses, with an average of 104.1 deaths per year. The maximum number of cold-related deaths (36.51%) occurred in the Rangpur Division. The numbers were much higher here than in the other divisions because Rangpur has the lowest average monthly air temperature during the winter months and the poorest socioeconomic conditions. The primary peak of cold-related mortality occurred during 21-31 December, when cold fronts from the Himalayas entered Bangladesh through the Rangpur Division in the north. A secondary peak occurred on 11-20 January each year. Our results also showed that most of the cold-related mortality cases occurred when the daily maximum temperature was lower than 21 °C. Demographically, the highest number of deaths was observed in children aged six years and under (50.68%), followed by senior citizens 65 years and above (20.42%). Fewer females died than males, but campfire burns were the primary cause of female deaths. Most mortality in Bangladesh was due to the cold (75.5%), cold-triggered illness (10.65%), and campfire burns (5.8%). The results of this research will assist policymakers in understanding the importance of taking necessary actions that protect vulnerable public health from cold-related hazards in Bangladesh.

Keywords: campfire; climate (temperature); cold wave; demography; disaster; poverty; public health; socioeconomic.

Figure 1

Study area showing the eight administrative divisions and climatic sub-zones of Bangladesh.

Figure 2

A schematic diagram of the GIS database development and the methodology followed in this study.

Figure 3

Standard deviations for (a) cold-related deaths per million population and (b) per 1000 km² area in the divisions of Bangladesh during 2009–2021. The numbers in brackets represent the specific absolute value of the division.

Figure 4

Isolines of the monthly average daily minimum air temperature (°C) in the division during the winter months of 2009 to 2021: (a) December, (b) January, and (c) February.

Figure 5

Relationship between cold-related deaths and winter temperatures for 2011–2012 in the divisions of (a) Rangpur, (b) Rajshahi, (c) Khulna, (d) Dhaka, (e) Sylhet, (f) Mymensingh, (g) Barishal, and (h) Chattogram. Horizontal dotted lines represent moderate cold at 21 °C.

Figure 6

Relationship between cold-related deaths and winter temperatures for 2012–2013 in the divisions of (a) Rangpur, (b) Rajshahi, (c) Khulna, (d) Dhaka, (e) Sylhet, (f) Mymensingh, (g) Barishal, and (h) Chattogram. Horizontal dotted lines represent moderate cold at 21 °C.

Figure 7

Ratios of the population living in (a) poverty and (b) extreme poverty in the divisions of Bangladesh. Absolute values are given brackets for each division.