Risk factors for horse falls in New Zealand Thoroughbred jumps racing

Abstract

This study aimed to determine the incidence of, and risk factors for race-day horse falls in Thoroughbred jumps (hurdle and steeplechase) racing in New Zealand. Incidence rates for race-day horse falls in jumps races from 2005/6 - 2018/19 racing seasons (n = 13,648 race day starts) were calculated per 1000 starts. Univariable and multivariable analyses of race-, horse- and jockey-level risk factors for horse falls were conducted using Poisson regression in a generalised linear mixed model. The incidence rate of horse falls in jumps races was 42 (95 % confidence intervals [CI], 39 - 45) per 1000 starts. Horse falls in steeplechase races were 1.6 (95 % CI, 1.4 - 1.9) times more likely than hurdle races. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) for horses falling at the last three jumps in comparison with the first three jumps was 3.1 (95 % CI, 2.8 - 3.5) for hurdle and 4.4 (95 % CI, 3.9 - 5.0) for steeplechase races. Greater jockey (age, P = 0.02) and horse experience (P = 0.001) were associated with a lower IRR of falls (P = 0.05). Longer races (P = 0.02) and those held in autumn compared to winter (IRR 1.4; 95 % CI, 1.0 - 1.8; P = 0.05) were associated with a higher rate of falling in steeplechase races. A regulatory change enhancing discretionary ability of jockeys to pull up 'in-race' was associated with reduced horse falls (IRR 0.65; 95 % CI, 0.51 - 0.82; P = 0.001). Pragmatic rule changes within the industry can have a positive effect on reducing risk and improving equine welfare.

Keywords: Epidemiology; Horse falls; Hurdle racing; Racehorse; Risk factors; Steeplechase.