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. 2022 Aug 19:10.1002/sres.2897.
doi: 10.1002/sres.2897. Online ahead of print.

Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review

Weiwei Zhang  1 , Shiyong Liu  2 , Nathaniel Osgood  3   4 , Hongli Zhu  1 , Ying Qian  5 , Peng Jia  6   7
Affiliations

Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review

Weiwei Zhang et al. Syst Res Behav Sci. .

Abstract

This study systematically reviews applications of three simulation approaches, that is, system dynamics model (SDM), agent-based model (ABM) and discrete event simulation (DES), and their hybrids in COVID-19 research and identifies theoretical and application innovations in public health. Among the 372 eligible papers, 72 focused on COVID-19 transmission dynamics, 204 evaluated both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions, 29 focused on the prediction of the pandemic and 67 investigated the impacts of COVID-19. ABM was used in 275 papers, followed by 54 SDM papers, 32 DES papers and 11 hybrid model papers. Evaluation and design of intervention scenarios are the most widely addressed area accounting for 55% of the four main categories, that is, the transmission of COVID-19, prediction of the pandemic, evaluation and design of intervention scenarios and societal impact assessment. The complexities in impact evaluation and intervention design demand hybrid simulation models that can simultaneously capture micro and macro aspects of the socio-economic systems involved.

Keywords: COVID‐19 pandemic; agent‐based model; discrete event simulation; system dynamics model; systematic review.

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Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta‐Analyses (PRISMA) flow chart for systematic review of using simulation models to help contain COVID‐19. ABM, agent‐based model; DES, discrete event simulation; HS, hybrid simulation; SDM, system dynamics model
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Summary of simulation models, research areas and system scale applied. Note: Numbered references are listed in the supporting information. ABM, agent‐based model; DES, discrete event simulation; HS, hybrid simulation; SDM, system dynamics model [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

REFERENCES FOR APPENDIX D

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References

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