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. 2022 Oct 20;12(1):17600.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-21355-5.

Quantitatively evaluate the impact of domestic aviation control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in China

Yu Wang  1   2 , Ke Li  2 , Ting Yuan  3 , Yi Liu  4
Affiliations

Quantitatively evaluate the impact of domestic aviation control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in China

Yu Wang et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

To quantitatively evaluate the impact of domestic aviation control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in China. The number of international flights from March to September 2019 simulated the number of flights from March to September 2020 without implementing aviation control measures. In addition, the proportion of asymptomatic persons and the delay in case reporting were adjusted to estimate the prevalence of each country during the same period and calculate the estimated imported cases. The estimated imported cases were assigned each day with weight, and the estimated daily reported cases were obtained based on the actual daily number of domestic cases in China. Effective Reproduction Number ([Formula: see text]) was calculated based on delayed distribution, Basic Reproductive Number ([Formula: see text]) distribution, and generation time distribution were reported in previous studies. Gaussian Process was used to estimate the effect of time-varying on [Formula: see text], and the estimated [Formula: see text] was compared with the actual [Formula: see text]. The estimated imported cases increased significantly compared with the actual number of imported cases. The estimated imported cases were mainly concentrated in North America and Europe from March to April and gradually increased in many East Asian countries from May to September. The difference between predicted [Formula: see text] and actual [Formula: see text] was statistically significant. The estimated imported cases and the estimated [Formula: see text] have increased compared to the actual situation. This paper quantitatively proves that Chinese aviation control measures significantly suppress the COVID-19 epidemic, which is conducive to promoting and applying this measure.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Total number of flights from March to September in 2019 and 2020.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Reporting delay time of cases.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The time interval between the onset of symptoms in different generations (serial interval).
Figure 4
Figure 4
Expected number of imported cases in critical countries from March to September 2020.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Acutal Rt and expected Rt with actual and expected number of importing cases in 2020.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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