Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2023 Feb;29(3):841-855.
doi: 10.1111/gcb.16498. Epub 2022 Nov 6.

Simulated climate warming decreases fruit number but increases seed mass

Hongbiao Zi  1 , Xin Jing  1 , Anrong Liu  2 , Xiaomin Fan  1 , Si-Chong Chen  3   4 , Hao Wang  5 , Jin-Sheng He  1   2
Affiliations

Simulated climate warming decreases fruit number but increases seed mass

Hongbiao Zi et al. Glob Chang Biol. 2023 Feb.

Abstract

Climate warming is changing plant sexual reproduction, having consequences for species distribution and community dynamics. However, the magnitude and direction of plant reproductive efforts (e.g., number of flowers) and success (e.g., number and mass of fruits or seeds) in response to warming have not been well-characterized. Here, we generated a global dataset of simulated warming experiments, consisting of 477 pairwise comparisons for 164 terrestrial species. We found evidence that warming overall decreased fruit number and increased seed mass, but little evidence that warming influenced flower number, fruit mass, or seed number. The warming effects on seed mass were regulated by the pollination type, and insect-pollinated plants exhibited a stronger response to warming than wind-pollinated plants. We found strong evidence that warming increased the mass of seeds for the nondominant species but no evidence of this for the dominant species. There was no evidence that phylogenetic relatedness explained the effects of warming on plant reproductive effort and success. In addition, the effects of warming on flowering onset negatively related to the responses in terms of the number of fruits and seeds to warming, revealing a cascading effect of plant reproductive development. These findings provide the first quantification of the response of terrestrial plant sexual reproduction to warming and suggest that plants may increase their fitness by producing heavier seeds under a warming climate.

Keywords: climate warming; flowering phenology; meta-analysis; plant sexual reproduction; reproductive effort; reproductive success.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Geographical distribution of the experimental warming studies in our meta‐analysis.
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Effect sizes (Hedges' d) of experimental warming on reproductive effort and success. Points indicate mean effect sizes across all studies, and the bars indicate 95% confidence intervals. Values on left represent sample sizes.
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
Relationships between warming effect sizes of reproductive effort and success and latitude, mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, and elevation. The reproductive indices include flower number (a–d), fruit number (e–h), fruit mass (i–l), seed number (m–p), and seed mass (q–t). Point size is proportional to weight in the meta‐analysis. Regression lines and 95% confidence intervals are shown when there are weak (p < .1), moderate (p < .05), strong (p < .01), or very strong evidence (p < .001) for the regulatory effects of predictor variables.
FIGURE 4
FIGURE 4
Comparisons of warming effects on reproductive effort and success among different categories of predictor variables. Reproductive indices include flower number (a), fruit number (b), fruit mass (c), seed number (d), and seed mass (e). Predictor variables include ecosystem type, warming method, warming magnitude, warming season, experimental duration, functional group, pollination type, and dominance of species. Solid points and error bars indicate mean effect sizes and 95% confidence intervals, respectively. Values on left represent number of synthesized cases. Black points are shown when there is no evidence of warming effects (p > .1); other colors are shown when there are weak (p < .1), moderate (p < .05), strong (p < .01), or very strong evidence (p < .001).
FIGURE 5
FIGURE 5
Phylogenetic trees of studied species and effects of warming on their reproductive effort and success. Warming effects on flower number, fruit number, fruit mass, seed number and seed mass are shown following the order from inner cycle to outer cycle. Length of bar is proportional to effect size of warming, which represents a positive (negative) value if the bar points toward outer (inner) cycle. Branch colors of phylogenetic tree represent family. Background colors of tip labels represent plant life form.
FIGURE 6
FIGURE 6
Overview of the effects of warming on plant sexual reproductive effort and success across terrestrial species. Mean effect sizes of warming (Hedges' d) and 95% confidence intervals are shown for flowering phenology (onset and duration of flowering), reproductive effort (flower number), and reproductive success (fruit and seed number and mass). Red and blue arrows indicate that warming increased and decreased reproductive effort and success, delayed and advanced flowering onset, or extended and shortened the flowering duration, respectively. Solid and dashed arrows beside numbers are shown when there is evidence (p < .1) or no evidence of warming effects (p > .1), respectively. We use Phytolacca americana as an example.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Aarssen, L. W. , & Jordan, C. (2001). Between‐species patterns of covariation in plant size, seed size and fecundity in monocarpic herbs. Écoscience, 8(4), 471–477. 10.1080/11956860.2001.11682677 - DOI
    1. Arft, A. , Walker, M. , Gurevitch, J. , Alatalo, J. , Bret‐Harte, M. , Dale, M. , Diemer, M. , Gugerli, F. , Henry, G. H. R. , Jones, M. H. , Hollister, R. D. , Jónsdóttir, I. S. , Laine, K. , Lévesque, E. , Marion, G. M. , Molau, U. , Mølgaard, P. , Nordenhäll, U. , Raszhivin, V. , … Wookey, P. A. (1999). Responses of tundra plants to experimental warming: Meta‐analysis of the international tundra experiment. Ecological Monographs, 69(4), 491–511. 10.1890/0012-9615(1999)069[0491:ROTPTE]2.0.CO;2 - DOI
    1. Ashman, T. L. , Knight, T. M. , Steets, J. A. , Amarasekare, P. , Burd, M. , Campbell, D. R. , Dudash, M. R. , Johnston, M. O. , Mazer, S. J. , Mitchell, R. J. , Morgan, M. T. , & Wilson, W. G. (2004). Pollen limitation of plant reproduction: Ecological and evolutionary causes and consequences. Ecology, 85(9), 2408–2421. 10.1890/03-8024 - DOI
    1. Avolio, M. L. , Forrestel, E. J. , Chang, C. C. , La Pierre, K. J. , Burghardt, K. T. , & Smith, M. D. (2019). Demystifying dominant species. New Phytologist, 223(3), 1106–1126. 10.1111/nph.15789 - DOI - PubMed
    1. Barrett, R. T. , & Hollister, R. D. (2016). Arctic plants are capable of sustained responses to long‐term warming. Polar Research, 35(1), 25405. 10.3402/polar.v35.25405 - DOI

DATA SOURCES

    1. Aerts, R. , Cornelissen, J. H. C. , Dorrepaal, E. , Van Logtestijn, R. S. P. , & Callaghan, T. V. (2004). Effects of experimentally imposed climate scenarios on flowering phenology and flower production of subarctic bog species. Global Change Biology, 10(9), 1599–1609.
    1. Alatalo, J. M. , & Little, C. J. (2014). Simulated global change: contrasting short and medium term growth and reproductive responses of a common alpine/Arctic cushion plant to experimental warming and nutrient enhancement. Springer Plus, 3(1), 1–10. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Alatalo, J. M. , & Totland, Ø. (1997). Response to simulated climatic change in an alpine and subarctic pollen‐risk strategist, Silene acaulis. Global Change Biology, 3(S1), 74–79.
    1. Barrett, R. T. , & Hollister, R. D. (2016). Arctic plants are capable of sustained responses to long‐term warming. Polar Research, 35(1), 25405.
    1. Bokhorst, S. , Bjerke, J. W. , Bowles, F. W. , Melillo, J. , Callaghan, T. V. , & Phoenix, G. K. (2008). Impacts of extreme winter warming in the sub‐Arctic: growing season responses of dwarf shrub heathland. Global Change Biology, 14(11), 2603–2612.