Risk Assessment on the Release of Wolbachia-Infected Aedes aegypti in Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Abstract

Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti is the latest technology that was developed to eliminate dengue fever. The Ministry of Research and Technology of the Republic of Indonesia (Kemenristekdikti) established an expert group to identify future potential risks that may occur over a period of 30 years associated with the release of Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti. The risk assessment consisted of identifying different hazards that may have impacts on humans and the environment. From the consensus among the experts, there were 56 hazards identified and categorized into 4 components, namely, ecological matters, efficacy in mosquito management, economic and sociocultural issues, and public health standards. There were 19 hazards in the ecological group. The overall likelihood in the ecology of the mosquito is very low (0.05), with moderate consequence (0.74), which resulted in negligible risk. For the efficacy in mosquito management group, there were 12 hazards that resulted in very low likelihood (0.11) with high consequence (0.85). The overall risk for mosquito management efficacy was very low (0.09). There were 14 hazards identified in the public health standard with very low likelihood (0.07), moderate consequence (0.50) and negligible risk (0.04). Lastly, 13 hazards were identified in the economic and sociocultural group with low likelihood (0.01) but of moderate consequence (0.5), which resulted in a very low risk (0.09). The risk severity level of the four components leading to the endpoint risk of "cause more harm" due to releasing Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti is negligible (0.01).

Keywords: Wolbachia; Yogyakarta; dengue fever; eliminate dengue program; risk analysis.

Figure 1

The framework of risk assessment on the release of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti in Yogyakarta, Indonesia.

Figure 2

The Bayesian belief network for the endpoint “cause more harm”. Each node (box) represents probability of hazards that might occur within the next 30 years as the result of the release of Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti.

Figure 3

The Bayesian belief network for the endpoint “ecological effects”. Each node (box) represents probability of hazards that might occur within the next 30 years as the result of the release of Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti. Parent nodes are in the yellow boxes.

Figure 4

The Bayesian belief network for the endpoint “mosquito management efficacy”. Each node (box) represents the probability of hazards that might occur within the next 30 years as the result of the release of Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti. Parent nodes are in the yellow boxes.

Figure 5

The Bayesian belief network for the endpoint “standard of public health”. Each node (box) represents the probability of hazards that might occur within the next 30 years as the result of the release of Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti. Parent nodes are in the yellow boxes.

Figure 6

The Bayesian belief network for the endpoint “economic and socio-cultural effects”. Each node (box) represents the probability of hazards that might occur within the next 30 years as results of the release of Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti. Parent nodes are in the yellow boxes.

Figure 7

Estimated likelihood of the adverse impacts of the release of Wolbachia associated with four identified hazards.