Global Population Exposure to Extreme Temperatures and Disease Burden

Abstract

The frequency and duration of extreme temperature events continues to increase worldwide. However, the scale of population exposure and its quantitative relationship with health risks remains unknown on a global scale, limiting our ability to identify policy priorities in response to climate change. Based on data from 171 countries between 2010 and 2019, this study estimated the exposure of vulnerable populations to extreme temperatures, and their contemporary and lag associations with disease burden attributed to non-optimal temperatures. Fixed-effects models and dynamic panel models were applied. Increased vulnerable population exposure to extreme temperatures had adverse contemporary effects on the burden of disease attributed to non-optimal temperature. Health risks stemming from extreme cold could accumulate to a greater extent, exhibiting a larger lag effect. Population exposure to extreme cold was mainly distributed in high-income countries, while extreme heat occurred more in low-income and middle-income countries. However, the association between population exposure to extreme cold and burden of disease was much stronger in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries, whereas the effect size of population exposure to extreme heat was similar. Our study highlighted that differential strategies should be determined and implemented according to the characteristics in different countries.

Keywords: disease burden; extreme temperature; low-income and middle-income countries; population exposure.

Figure 1

The ten-year average (2010–2019) of older population exposure to extreme temperature and associated disease burden. (a) Older population exposure to extreme heat (person-days/year⁻¹). (b) Older population exposure to extreme cold (person-days/year⁻¹). (c) YLL attributable to high temperature (per 100,000 population). (d) YLL attributable to low temperature (per 100,000 population).