Validation of the Prognostic Utility of ESTRO/EORTC Oligometastatic Disease Classification: A Secondary Analysis From the Population-Based Phase II SABR-5 Trial

Abstract

Purpose: The recently developed European Society for Radiotherapy and Oncology (ESTRO)/European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) oligometastatic disease (OMD) classification has not been validated in terms of its prognostic significance. This study stratified patients from the phase II SABR-5 trial based on ESTRO/EORTC criteria and compared progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) to determine the prognostic significance of the classification scheme.

Methods and materials: The SABR-5 trial was a single arm phase II study conducted at the 6 regional cancer centers across British Columbia (BC), Canada, where SABR for oligometastases was only offered on trial. Patients with up to 5 oligometastases (total or not controlled by prior treatment and including induced OMD) underwent SABR to all lesions. Patients were 18 years of age or older, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 0 to 2, and life expectancy ≥6 months. PFS and OS were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and differences between OMD groups were assessed with log-rank tests. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed using Cox regression modeling.

Results: Between November 2016 and July 2020, 381 patients underwent SABR on trial. Median follow-up was 27 months (interquartile range, 18-36). The most frequent OMD group was de novo OMD (69%), followed by repeat (16%) and induced (13%). OMD groups differed significantly in PFS (P < .001) but not OS (P = .069). The OMD classification was an independent predictor of both PFS (P = .005) and OS (P = .002). Of the 5 classification factors, only chronicity (synchronous, hazard ratio, 0.52; P = .027) and oligoprogression (hazard ratio, 2.05; P = .004) were independently prognostic for OS.

Conclusions: In this large prospective cohort, the ESTRO/EORTC classification was an independent predictor of PFS and OS and should be used to identify specific patient groups for clinical trials. In this trial population, the prognostic power is largely attributable to chronicity and oligoprogression. Simplification of the framework may be possible in the future and allow for greater ease of use; however, further data on underrepresented OMD groups and histologies will be required.