Efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines: a systematic review and network meta-analysis of phase 3 randomized controlled trials

Abstract

Several vaccines have been approved for the prevention of COVID-19. However, no head-to-head trials comparing their clinical efficacy have been performed. This network meta-analysis aims to identify those, among the competing existing vaccines, conferring the maximum protection against COVID-19. A literature search was done in Medline (via PubMed), Embase and Cochrane Library databases for phase 3 randomized controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of different COVID-19 vaccines. Search results were screened and eligible studies were included to perform a network meta-analysis in software 'R' version 4.1.2 using a random effect model. Cochrane's 'Risk of Bias tool (RoB2)' was used for quality assessment. Raw data from the included studies was used for network meta-analysis. Assessment of inconsistency was not possible as no study compared two or more vaccines directly. A forest plot for indirect comparison of various COVID-19 vaccines was obtained. Rankogram and 'P' scores were obtained to rank the vaccines based on the indirect evidence of their comparative efficacy. A total of 17 randomized controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of 16 COVID-19 vaccines, were included in the network meta-analysis. A total of 361,386 participants was included in this network meta-analysis. Overall risk of bias among included studies was of 'some concern'. All the COVID-19 vaccines had a statistically significant reduction of risk for contracting symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 in comparison to the placebo, however, the maximum protection (RR 0.05) was with BNT126b2. The indirect comparison also revealed BNT126b2 vaccine confers the highest protection against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in comparison to all others included, with a 'P' score of 0.9771 followed by mRNA-1273, rAD26 & rAD5 and NVX-CoV2373. The evidence generated from this network meta-analysis indicates the good efficacy of all the included vaccines in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 as compared to placebo. The BNT126b2 vaccine was found to provide the highest protection against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 among all included followed by mRNA-1273, rAD26 & rAD5, NVX-CoV2373 and others.

Keywords: Coronavirus disease 2019; Efficacy; Network meta-analysis; Vaccine.

Fig. 1

Prisma flow chart showing inclusion and exclusion of studies

Fig. 2

Network plot of studies included in the network meta-analysis. Line width represents inverse standard error of random effect model comparing two treatments. The numerals on the lines represent the number of studies between the respective two treatment arms

Fig. 3

Forest plot of intervention (COVID-19 vaccines) in comparison to placebo in various clinical trials included in the network meta-analysis. RR relative risk, CI confidence interval

Fig. 4

Forest plot of indirect comparison of different pairs of various COVID-19 vaccines through a network meta-analysis. RR relative risk, 95%-CI 95% confidence interval