Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2022 Sep 29;4(12):100602.
doi: 10.1016/j.jhepr.2022.100602. eCollection 2022 Dec.

Long-term survival trends for primary liver and pancreatic cancers in the Nordic countries

Kari Hemminki  1   2 , Asta Försti  3   4 , Otto Hemminki  5   6 , Vaclav Liska  1   7 , Akseli Hemminki  6   8
Affiliations

Long-term survival trends for primary liver and pancreatic cancers in the Nordic countries

Kari Hemminki et al. JHEP Rep. .

Abstract

Background & aims: Liver cancer (LC) and pancreatic cancer (PC) are often diagnosed at an advanced stage resulting in high mortality. High-quality survival data are rarely available for trend analyses over a long period.

Methods: The Danish, Finnish, Norwegian, and Swedish cancer data were accessed at the NORDCAN database. We analysed relative 1- and 5-year survival trends in LC and PC between years 1970 and 2019.

Results: Relative 1-year survival in LC for Nordic men and women was about 10% in the period between 1970 and 1974, and it increased moderately by year 2000 and steeply thereafter, eventually reaching 40-50%. The patterns in 5-year survival were similar, but after the year 2000, survival in Norway and Sweden increased steeply to 23%, whereas survival in Denmark and Finland lagged behind, reaching 10% to 15%. The patterns for PC also showed rapid improvement after the year 2000, with 1-year survival reaching 30% to 40% and 5-year survival reaching 10% for Finland and 15% for Norway and Sweden. Survival was best for patients diagnosed before age 50 years, and it was worst for older patients. For both cancers the difference between 1- and 5-year survival increased with time.

Conclusions: Survival in LC and PC improved first modestly and then steeply over the 50-year period covered. The increase in 5-year survival was less than that of 1-year survival. The survival gains were most likely the result of earlier diagnosis, improved treatment, and better organised supportive care. The challenges are to keep up these positive trends, to extend survival benefits past Year 1, and to obtain similar results in elderly patients. Primary prevention through avoidance of risk factors would reduce case numbers.

Lay summary: Liver and pancreatic cancers are among the most lethal of all cancers. In 50 years, survival in these cancers has slowly improved, and in the past 20 years, the development has been increasingly favourable. Widespread adoption of healthy lifestyles will be key to reducing the risk of these cancers.

Keywords: CI5, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents; DK, Denmark; FI, Finland; Hepatocellular carcinoma; IARC, International Agency for Research on Cancer; ICD, International Classification of Diseases; ICSS, International Cancer Survival Standard; IPMN, intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm; LC, liver cancer; Mortality; NO, Norway; PAF, population attributable fraction; PC, pancreatic cancer; Relative survival; Risk factors; SE, Sweden; Treatment.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

AH is a shareholder in Targovax ASA. AH is an employee and shareholder in TILT Biotherapeutics Ltd. Other authors declare no conflict of interest. Please refer to the accompanying ICMJE disclosure forms for further details.

Figures

None
Graphical abstract
Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Relative 1-year survival in liver cancer among Nordic men and women between 1970 and 2019.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Relative 5-year survival in liver cancer among Nordic men and women between 1970 and 2019.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Relative 1-year survival in pancreatic cancer among Nordic men and women between 1970 and 2019.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Relative 5-year survival in pancreatic cancer among Nordic men and women between 1970 and 2019.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Similar articles

See all similar articles

Cited by

See all "Cited by" articles

References

    1. Arnold M., Abnet C.C., Neale R.E., Vignat J., Giovannucci E.L., McGlynn K.A., et al. Global Burden of 5 major types of gastrointestinal cancer. Gastroenterology. 2020;159:335–349.e15. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Santucci C., Carioli G., Bertuccio P., Malvezzi M., Pastorino U., Boffetta P., et al. Progress in cancer mortality, incidence, and survival: a global overview. Eur J Cancer Prev. 2020;29:367–381. - PubMed
    1. Arnold M., Rutherford M.J., Bardot A., Ferlay J., Andersson T.M., Myklebust T., et al. Progress in cancer survival, mortality, and incidence in seven high-income countries 1995–2014 (ICBP SURVMARK-2): a population-based study. Lancet Oncol. 2019;20:1493–1505. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Brown K.F., Rumgay H., Dunlop C., Ryan M., Quartly F., Cox A., et al. The fraction of cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors in England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the United Kingdom in 2015. Br J Cancer. 2018;118:1130–1141. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Wilson L.F., Antonsson A., Green A.C., Jordan S.J., Kendall B.J., Nagle C.M., et al. How many cancer cases and deaths are potentially preventable? Estimates for Australia in 2013. Int J Cancer. 2018;142:691–701. - PubMed

LinkOut - more resources