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. 2022 Nov 1;7(11):346.
doi: 10.3390/tropicalmed7110346.

Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Tuberculosis at the County-Level in Shandong Province, China, 2016-2020

Yuqi Duan  1 , Jun Cheng  2 , Ying Liu  1 , Qidi Fang  1 , Minghao Sun  1 , Chuanlong Cheng  1 , Chuang Han  1 , Xiujun Li  1
Affiliations

Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Tuberculosis at the County-Level in Shandong Province, China, 2016-2020

Yuqi Duan et al. Trop Med Infect Dis. .

Abstract

(1) Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease that seriously endangers health and restricts economic and social development. Shandong Province has the second largest population in China with a high TB burden. This study aimed to detect the epidemic characteristics and spatio-temporal pattern of reported TB incidence in Shandong Province and provide a scientific basis to develop more effective strategies for TB prevention and control. (2) Methods: The age, gender, and occupational distribution characteristics of the cases were described. The Seasonal-Trend LOESS decomposition method, global spatial autocorrelation statistic, local spatial autocorrelation statistics, and spatial-temporal scanning were used to decompose time series, analyze the spatial aggregation, detect cold and hot spots, and analyze the spatio-temporal aggregation of reported incidence. (3) Results: A total of 135,185 TB cases were reported in Shandong Province during the five years 2016-2020. Men and farmers are the main populations of TB patients. The time-series of reported tuberculosis incidence had a long-term decreasing trend with clear seasonality. There was aggregation in the spatial distribution, and the areas with a high reported incidence of TB were mainly clustered in the northwest and southeast of Shandong. The temporal scan also yielded similar results. (4) Conclusions: Health policy authorities should develop targeted prevention and control measures based on epidemiological characteristics to prevent and control TB more effectively.

Keywords: epidemiological characteristics; spatial autocorrelation; spatio-temporal analysis; tuberculosis.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The number of cases and incidence rate of reported cases of tuberculosis by gender and age, 2016–2020.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Time series decomposition of tuberculosis reported incidence from 2016 to 2020.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The geographical distribution of tuberculosis cumulative reported incidence in Shandong Province from 2016 to 2020.
Figure 4
Figure 4
The spatial clusters of the annual and whole five-year tuberculosis reported incidence at the county-level using the Local Gi* statistic.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Spatio-temporal clustering of reported tuberculosis in Shandong Province from 2016 to 2020.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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