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. 2022 Nov 3;14(21):5417.
doi: 10.3390/cancers14215417.

Global, Regional, and National Burdens with Temporal Trends of Early-, Intermediate-, and Later-Onset Gastric Cancer from 1990 to 2019 and Predictions up to 2035

Fei-Long Ning  1   2 , Nan-Nan Zhang  3 , Zhe-Ming Zhao  1 , Wan-Ying Du  2 , Yong-Ji Zeng  4 , Masanobu Abe  5 , Jun-Peng Pei  6 , Chun-Dong Zhang  1
Affiliations

Global, Regional, and National Burdens with Temporal Trends of Early-, Intermediate-, and Later-Onset Gastric Cancer from 1990 to 2019 and Predictions up to 2035

Fei-Long Ning et al. Cancers (Basel). .

Abstract

Background: Evidence for estimating and predicting the temporal trends of gastric cancer in different age groups is lacking.

Methods: Data of early-, intermediate-, and later-onset gastric cancer (EOGC, IOGC, LOGC) was from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. The incidences and deaths due to EOGC, IOGC, and LOGC were analyzed by period, sex, geographic location, and sociodemographic incidence. Temporal trends were evaluated by estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). The incidences and temporal trends were predicted until 2035.

Results: There were substantial differences in the incidence and death rates of the three populations at global, regional and national levels in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, EOGC (EAPC, -0.84) showed a slower decrease in incidence rate worldwide than IOGC (EAPC, -1.77) and LOGC (EAPC, -1.10), whereas EOGC and LOGC showed slower decreases in mortality than IOGC. The worldwide incidence rate of EOGC (EAPC, 1.44) was predicted to increase substantially from 2020 to 2035, while that for LOGC (EAPC, 0.43) was predicted to increase slightly and that for IOGC (EAPC, -0.01) was predicted to remain stable over the same period.

Conclusions: This study revealed differences in the burdens and temporal trends of EOGC, IOGC, and LOGC, and highlighted the importance of tailored cancer-control measures in neglected subpopulations, especially in patients with EOGC.

Keywords: epidemiology; gastric cancer; prediction; temporal trend.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Incidence and death rates globally and by SDI and GBD regions in 2019. (A) Incidence rates globally and by SDI and GBD regions in 2019; (B) Death rates globally and by SDI and GBD regions in 2019.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Incidence and death rates of gastric cancer globally in 2019. (A) Incidence rates of gastric cancer globally in 2019; (B) Death rates of gastric cancer globally in 2019.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Correlations between estimated annual percentage changes in gastric cancer and SDI values. (A) Correlations between estimated annual percentage changes of incidence rates in gastric cancer and SDI values; (B) Correlations between estimated annual percentage changes of death rates in gastric cancer and SDI values.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Predictions for gastric cancer from 2020 to 2035 globally and in 12 countries. (A) Predictions of incidence rate for early-onset gastric cancer from 2020 to 2035 globally and in 12 countries; (B) Predictions of incidence rate for intermediate-onset gastric cancer from 2020 to 2035 globally and in 12 countries; (C) Predictions of incidence rate for later-onset gastric cancer from 2020 to 2035 globally and in 12 countries.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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