Development and validation of a nomogram for esophagogastric variceal bleeding in liver cirrhosis: A cohort study in 1099 cases

Abstract

Objectives: Esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EVB) is a catastrophic complication of decompensated liver cirrhosis. We aimed to establish a nomogram based on noninvasive clinical and imaging variables to predict the risk of EVB.

Methods: The cut-off value of each variable was determined through univariate regression analysis. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors and establish predictive models. The nomogram was established and validated using the calibration discrimination across different groups.

Results: Six indicators, including platelet count, hemoglobin, albumin to globulin ratio, fasting blood glucose, serum chloride, and computed tomography portal vein diameter (CTPD), were found to be related to the risk of EVB. Two models, with or without CTPD, were established and compared. Model 1 with CTPD had better discrimination than model 2 with C-index of 0.893 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.872-0.915) and 0.862 (95% CI 0.837-0.887) in the primary cohort, respectively (Z = 2.027, P = 0.043). While the C-index of the two models in the validation cohort was 0.878 (95% CI 0.838-0.919) and 0.810 (95% CI 0.757-0.863). Moreover, the clinical decision analysis curve and clinical impact curve showed that these models might confer a significant net benefit on patients and provide a reference threshold for clinicians.

Conclusion: A nomogram using routine clinical indicators was established to predict the risk of EVB in patients with liver cirrhosis, which was verified in an independent cohort and demonstrated a great consistency.

Keywords: cirrhosis; clinical decision making; esophagogastric varices; gastrointestinal bleeding; nomogram.