Analysis of optimal lockdown in integral economic-epidemic model
- PMID: 36405251
- PMCID: PMC9667431
- DOI: 10.1007/s00199-022-01469-7
Analysis of optimal lockdown in integral economic-epidemic model
Abstract
We analyze the optimal lockdown in an economic-epidemic model with realistic infectiveness distribution. The model is described by Volterra integral equations and accurately depicts the COVID-19 infectivity pattern from clinical data. A maximum principle is derived, and a qualitative dynamic analysis of the optimal lockdown problem is provided over finite and infinite horizons. We analytically prove and economically justify the possibility of an endemic scenario when the infection rate begins to climb after the lockdown ends.
Keywords: Cost minimization; Epidemic control; Optimal lockdown; Volterra integral equations.
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022, Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
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