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. 2022 Nov 3:9:955366.
doi: 10.3389/fvets.2022.955366. eCollection 2022.

Spatio-temporal and trade export risk analysis of bluetongue disease in France: A case study of China

Qiao-Ling Yang  1   2 , Shu-Wen Zhang  2 , Song-Yin Qiu  3 , Qiang Zhang  4 , Qin Chen  2 , Bing Niu  2
Affiliations

Spatio-temporal and trade export risk analysis of bluetongue disease in France: A case study of China

Qiao-Ling Yang et al. Front Vet Sci. .

Abstract

Bluetongue disease (BT) is a viral disease that can be introduced through imported animals and animal products, affecting local animal husbandry. In this study, the spatial and temporal patterns of BT outbreaks (outbreak: a BT infection in cattle, sheep, or goats on a farm, involving at least one infected animal) in France were analyzed and the risk of introducing bluetongue virus (BTV) into countries through trade was assessed. A spatiotemporal analysis of BT reported during the study period (2015-2018) showed that there were clustered outbreaks of BT in France in 2016 and 2017, with outbreaks concentrated from August to December. The outbreak moved eastward from the center of mainland France to surrounding countries. A semi-quantitative risk analysis framework was established by combining the likelihood assessment and consequence analysis of introducing BTV into trading countries through trade. Exemplified by China, the research showed that in the analysis of the likelihood of BTV from France being introduced into trading countries through live cattle trade, China imports a large number of live cattle, bringing high risks. The likelihood of introducing bovine semen into trading countries was similar to that of live cattle, but the harm caused by the trade in live cattle was higher than that caused by the trade in bovine semen. This risk analysis framework can provide a reference for other countries to quickly assess the risk of bluetongue transmission in import and export trade.

Keywords: France; bluetongue disease; bovine semen; live cattle; semi-quantitative risk analysis; spatio-temporal analysis.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The semi-quantitative risk assessment process for imported animals and animal products into BTV.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The epidemic situation of BT in France. (A) Outbreaks of BT in France from 2008 to 2019; (B) BT-infected animals in France from 2015 to 2018.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Distribution of serotypes of BT in France and surrounding countries from 2014 to 2019.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Global autocorrelation analysis of BT in France from 2015 to 2018.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Heat map of BT outbreak in France from 2015 to 2018.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Analysis of the hot and cold spots of BT in France from 2015 to 2018.
Figure 7
Figure 7
The geographical location of BT clusters in France from 2015 to 2018. (A) Distribution of BT in France; (B–F) are cluster distributions when 10–50% of animals are at risk of BT infection, respectively.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Analysis of the transmission direction of BT in France from 2015 to 2018. (A) SDE, standard deviational ellipse; (B) MC, mean center.
Figure 9
Figure 9
The risk determination matrix of French BTV introduced into China via live cattle. (A) China imports a small number of live cattle from France, accounting for <1% of the total imports; (B) China imports a large number of live cattle from France, accounting for about 99% of the total imports.
Figure 10
Figure 10
Risk determination matrix of BTV in France imported into China via bovine semen.
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