Prevalence and risk factors of stroke in China: a national serial cross-sectional study from 2003 to 2018

Abstract

Stroke imposes a substantial burden worldwide. With the rapid economic and lifestyle transition in China, trends of the prevalence of stroke across different geographic regions in China remain largely unknown. Capitalizing on the data in the National Health Services Surveys (NHSS), we assessed the prevalence and risk factors of stroke in China from 2003 to 2018. In this study, data from 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018 NHSS were collected. Stroke cases were based on participants' self-report of a previous diagnosis by clinicians. We estimated the trends of stroke prevalence for the overall population and subgroups by age, sex, and socioeconomic factors, then compared across different geographic regions. We applied multivariable logistic regression to assess associations between stroke and risk factors. The number of participants aged 15 years or older were 154,077, 146,231, 230,067, and 212,318 in 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018, respectively, among whom, 1435, 1996, 3781, and 6069 were stroke patients. The age and sex standardized prevalence per 100,000 individuals was 879 in 2003, 1100 in 2008, 1098 in 2013, and 1613 in 2018. Prevalence per 100,000 individuals in rural areas increased from 669 in 2003 to 1898 in 2018, while urban areas had a stable trend from 1261 in 2003 to 1365 in 2018. Across geographic regions, the central region consistently had the highest prevalence, but the western region has an alarmingly increasing trend from 623/100,000 in 2003 to 1898/100,000 in 2018 (P _trend<0.001), surpassing the eastern region in 2013. Advanced age, male sex, rural area, central region, hypertension, diabetes, depression, low education and income level, retirement or unemployment, excessive physical activity, and unimproved sanitation facilities were significantly associated with stroke. In conclusion, the increasing prevalence of stroke in China was primarily driven by economically underdeveloped regions. It is important to develop targeted prevention programs in underdeveloped regions. Besides traditional risk factors, more attention should be paid to nontraditional risk factors to improve the prevention of stroke.

Keywords: risk factors; stroke.

Figure 1

The scissors phenomenon: prevalence of stroke by residence and region in China from 2003 to 2018. All estimates were age and sex standardised to the 2010 Chinese census. Error bars indicate 95% CI. P value for trend calculated using one-sided (increasing trend) Cochran-Armitage trend test.