How Does a Port Build Influence? Diffusion Patterns in Global Oil Transportation

Abstract

Ports play a critical role in the global oil trade market, and those with significant influence have an implicit advantage in global oil transportation. In order to offer a thorough understanding of port influences, the research presented in this paper analyzes the evolution of the dominance mechanisms underlying port influence diffusion. Our study introduces a port influence diffusion model to outline global oil transport patterns. It examines the direct and indirect influence of ports using worldwide vessel trajectory data from 2009 to 2016. Port influences are modelled via diffusion patterns and the resulting ports influenced. The results of the case study applied to specific ports show different patterns and influence evolutions. Four main port influence trends are identified. The first one is that ports that have a strong direct influence over their neighboring ports materialize a directly influenced area. Second, geographical distance still plays an important role in the whole port influence patterns. Third, it clearly appears that, the higher the number of directly influenced ports, the higher the probability of having an influence pattern, as revealed by the diffusion process. The peculiarity of this approach is that, in contrast to previous studies, global maritime trade is analyzed in terms of direct and indirect influences and according to oil trade flows.

Keywords: direct influence diffusion; global oil transportation; indirect influence diffusion; ports; vessel trajectory data.

Figure 4

Influence diffusion at the first stage: Rotterdam. Note: the orange node denotes the initial diffusion port, while the blue line denotes the trade route from the initial diffusion port to the destination ports worldwide. The red node denotes the influenced node at the first stage, namely the directly influenced ports, while the green node denotes the uninfluenced node. (The same for the following Figure 5, Figure 6, Figure 8, Figure 9, Figure 10, Figure 11, Figure 12 and Figure 13).

Figure 5

Influence diffusion at the first stage: Antwerp.

Figure 6

Influence diffusion at the first stage: Singapore.

Figure 7

Number of influenced ports of influence at different diffusion stages: Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Singapore.

Figure 8

Influence diffusion at the first stage: Kiel.

Figure 9

Influence diffusion at the first stage: Istanbul.

Figure 10

Influence diffusion at the first stage: Shanghai.

Figure 11

Influence diffusion at the first stage: Fujairah.

Figure 12

Influence diffusion at the first stage: Ichihara.

Figure 13

Influence diffusion at the first stage: Mongstad, Dumai, and Yeosu.

Figure 1

Schematic diagram of port influence diffusion model.

Figure 2

Number of influencing ports at different diffusion stages.

Figure 3

Geographical distribution of different types of ports.