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. 2022 Nov-Dec;20(6):548-550.
doi: 10.1370/afm.2872.

External Validation of the COVID-NoLab and COVID-SimpleLab Prognostic Tools

Mark H Ebell  1 , Robert P Lennon  2 , Derjung M Tarn  3 , Bruce Barrett  4 , Alex H Krist  5 , Huamei Dong  6 , Xinyan Cai  7 , Arch G Mainous 3rd  8 , Aleksandra E Zgierska  9 , Wen-Jan Tuan  2 , Munish Goyal  10
Affiliations

External Validation of the COVID-NoLab and COVID-SimpleLab Prognostic Tools

Mark H Ebell et al. Ann Fam Med. 2022 Nov-Dec.

Abstract

Our objective was to externally validate 2 simple risk scores for mortality among a mostly inpatient population with COVID-19 in Canada (588 patients for COVID-NoLab and 479 patients for COVID-SimpleLab). The mortality rates in the low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups for COVID-NoLab were 1.1%, 9.6%, and 21.2%, respectively. The mortality rates for COVID-SimpleLab were 0.0%, 9.8%, and 20.0%, respectively. These values were similar to those in the original derivation cohort. The 2 simple risk scores, now successfully externally validated, offer clinicians a reliable way to quickly identify low-risk inpatients who could potentially be managed as outpatients in the event of a bed shortage. Both are available online (https://ebell-projects.shinyapps.io/covid_nolab/ and https://ebell-projects.shinyapps.io/COVID-SimpleLab/).

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; clinical decision-making; clinical prediction rule; external validation; inpatients; mortality; risk assessment; risk factors; risk score.

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