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. 2022 Dec;9(2):e002143.
doi: 10.1136/openhrt-2022-002143.

Patient-oriented risk score for predicting death 1 year after myocardial infarction: the SweDen risk score

Rebecca Tremain Rylance  1 , Philippe Wagner  2 , Kevin K W Olesen  3 , Jonas Carlson  4 , Joakim Alfredsson  5 , Tomas Jernberg  6 , Margret Leosdottir  7   8 , Pelle Johansson  9 , Peter Vasko  5 , Michael Maeng  4 , Moman Aladdin Mohammed  4 , David Erlinge  4
Affiliations

Patient-oriented risk score for predicting death 1 year after myocardial infarction: the SweDen risk score

Rebecca Tremain Rylance et al. Open Heart. 2022 Dec.

Abstract

Objectives: Our aim was to derive, based on the SWEDEHEART registry, and validate, using the Western Denmark Heart registry, a patient-oriented risk score, the SweDen score, which could calculate the risk of 1-year mortality following a myocardial infarction (MI).

Methods: The factors included in the SweDen score were age, sex, smoking, diabetes, heart failure and statin use. These were chosen a priori by the SWEDEHEART steering group based on the premise that the factors were information known by the patients themselves. The score was evaluated using various statistical methods such as time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curves of the linear predictor, area under the curve metrics, Kaplan-Meier survivor curves and the calibration slope.

Results: The area under the curve values were 0.81 in the derivation data and 0.76 in the validation data. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed similar patient profiles across datasets. The calibration slope was 1.03 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.08) in the validation data using the linear predictor from the derivation data.

Conclusions: The SweDen risk score is a novel tool created for patient use. The risk score calculator will be available online and presents mortality risk on a colour scale to simplify interpretation and to avoid exact life span expectancies. It provides a validated patient-oriented risk score predicting the risk of death within 1 year after suffering an MI, which visualises the benefit of statin use and smoking cessation in a simple way.

Keywords: acute coronary syndrome; biostatistics; myocardial infarction.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curves predicting 1-year death adjusted for the linear predictor with the SWEDEHEART registry (derivation dataset) and the Western Denmark registry (validation dataset).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Kaplan-Meier curves of the categorised linear predictor (weighted sum of regression coefficients produced from the adjusted Cox model divided into groups) from SWEDEHEART registry (derivation dataset) and Western Denmark registry (validation dataset).
Figure 3
Figure 3
SweDen risk score calculator.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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