A global biological conservation horizon scan of issues for 2023

William J Sutherland¹, Craig Bennett², Peter N M Brotherton³, Holly M Butterworth⁴, Mick N Clout⁵, Isabelle M Côté⁶, Jason Dinsdale⁷, Nafeesa Esmail⁸, Erica Fleishman⁹, Kevin J Gaston¹⁰, James E Herbert-Read¹¹, Alice Hughes¹², Hermanni Kaartokallio¹³, Xavier Le Roux¹⁴, Fiona A Lickorish¹⁵, Wendy Matcham¹⁶, Noor Noor¹⁷, James E Palardy¹⁸, James W Pearce-Higgins¹⁹, Lloyd S Peck²⁰, Nathalie Pettorelli²¹, Jules Pretty²², Richard Scobey²³, Mark D Spalding²⁴, Femke H Tonneijck²⁵, Nicolas Tubbs²⁶, James E M Watson²⁷, Jonathan E Wentworth²⁸, Jeremy D Wilson²⁹, Ann Thornton³⁰

Affiliations

¹ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK; Biosecurity Research Initiative at St Catharine's (BioRISC), St Catharine's College, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. Electronic address: w.sutherland@zoo.cam.ac.uk.
² Royal Society of Wildlife Trusts, The Kiln, Waterside, Mather Road, Newark, Nottinghamshire NG24 1WT, UK.
³ Natural England, 4th Floor Foss House, Kings Pool, 1-2 Peasholme Green, York YO1 7PX, UK.
⁴ Natural Resources Wales, Cambria House, 29 Newport Road, Cardiff CF24 0TP, UK.
⁵ Centre for Biodiversity and Biosecurity, School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, PB 92019, Auckland, New Zealand.
⁶ Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada.
⁷ Environment Agency, Horizon House, Deanery Road, Bristol BS1 5AH, UK.
⁸ Wilder Institute/Calgary Zoo, 1300 Zoo Road NE, Calgary, AB T2E 7V6, Canada.
⁹ College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
¹⁰ Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK.
¹¹ Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.
¹² School of Biological Sciences, University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong.
¹³ Finnish Environment Institute, Agnes Sjöbergin katu 2, 00790 Helsinki, Finland.
¹⁴ University of Lyon, Microbial Ecology Centre, INRAE (UMR1418), CNRS (UMR5557), University Lyon 1, 69622 Villeurbanne, France.
¹⁵ UK Research and Consultancy Services (RCS) Ltd, Valletts Cottage, Westhope, Hereford HR4 8BU, UK.
¹⁶ Natural Environment Research Council, UK Research and Innovation, Polaris House, North Star Avenue, Swindon SN2 1FL, UK.
¹⁷ UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.
¹⁸ The Pew Charitable Trusts, 901 E St. NW, Washington, DC 20004, USA.
¹⁹ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK; British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK.
²⁰ British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
²¹ Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.
²² Centre for Public and Policy Engagement and School of Life Sciences, University of Essex, Colchester CO4 3SQ, UK.
²³ TRAFFIC, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK.
²⁴ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK; The Nature Conservancy, Strade delle Tolfe, 14, Siena 53100, Italy.
²⁵ Wetlands International, 6700 AL Wageningen, The Netherlands.
²⁶ WWF-Belgium, BD Emile Jacqumainlaan 90, 1000 Brussels, Belgium.
²⁷ School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia.
²⁸ Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, 14 Tothill Street, Westminster, London SW1H 9NB, UK.
²⁹ RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, 2 Lochside View, Edinburgh EH12 9DH, UK.
³⁰ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK.

PMID: 36460563
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2022.10.005

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A global biological conservation horizon scan of issues for 2023

William J Sutherland et al. Trends Ecol Evol. 2023 Jan.

Free article

. 2023 Jan;38(1):96-107.

doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2022.10.005. Epub 2022 Nov 29.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK; Biosecurity Research Initiative at St Catharine's (BioRISC), St Catharine's College, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. Electronic address: w.sutherland@zoo.cam.ac.uk.
² Royal Society of Wildlife Trusts, The Kiln, Waterside, Mather Road, Newark, Nottinghamshire NG24 1WT, UK.
³ Natural England, 4th Floor Foss House, Kings Pool, 1-2 Peasholme Green, York YO1 7PX, UK.
⁴ Natural Resources Wales, Cambria House, 29 Newport Road, Cardiff CF24 0TP, UK.
⁵ Centre for Biodiversity and Biosecurity, School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, PB 92019, Auckland, New Zealand.
⁶ Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada.
⁷ Environment Agency, Horizon House, Deanery Road, Bristol BS1 5AH, UK.
⁸ Wilder Institute/Calgary Zoo, 1300 Zoo Road NE, Calgary, AB T2E 7V6, Canada.
⁹ College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
¹⁰ Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK.
¹¹ Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.
¹² School of Biological Sciences, University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong.
¹³ Finnish Environment Institute, Agnes Sjöbergin katu 2, 00790 Helsinki, Finland.
¹⁴ University of Lyon, Microbial Ecology Centre, INRAE (UMR1418), CNRS (UMR5557), University Lyon 1, 69622 Villeurbanne, France.
¹⁵ UK Research and Consultancy Services (RCS) Ltd, Valletts Cottage, Westhope, Hereford HR4 8BU, UK.
¹⁶ Natural Environment Research Council, UK Research and Innovation, Polaris House, North Star Avenue, Swindon SN2 1FL, UK.
¹⁷ UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.
¹⁸ The Pew Charitable Trusts, 901 E St. NW, Washington, DC 20004, USA.
¹⁹ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK; British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK.
²⁰ British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
²¹ Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.
²² Centre for Public and Policy Engagement and School of Life Sciences, University of Essex, Colchester CO4 3SQ, UK.
²³ TRAFFIC, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK.
²⁴ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK; The Nature Conservancy, Strade delle Tolfe, 14, Siena 53100, Italy.
²⁵ Wetlands International, 6700 AL Wageningen, The Netherlands.
²⁶ WWF-Belgium, BD Emile Jacqumainlaan 90, 1000 Brussels, Belgium.
²⁷ School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia.
²⁸ Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, 14 Tothill Street, Westminster, London SW1H 9NB, UK.
²⁹ RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, 2 Lochside View, Edinburgh EH12 9DH, UK.
³⁰ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK.

PMID: 36460563
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2022.10.005

Abstract

We present the results of our 14th horizon scan of issues we expect to influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial set of 102 topics, our global panel of 30 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues we consider most urgent for societies worldwide to address. Issues are novel within biological conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step change at global or regional scales. Issues such as submerged artificial light fisheries and accelerating upper ocean currents could have profound negative impacts on marine or coastal ecosystems. We also identified potentially positive technological advances, including energy production and storage, improved fertilisation methods, and expansion of biodegradable materials. If effectively managed, these technologies could realise future benefits for biological diversity.

Keywords: Delphi; biodiversity; environmental; futures.

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Declaration of interests No interests are declared.

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A global biological conservation horizon scan of issues for 2023

Affiliations

A global biological conservation horizon scan of issues for 2023

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

Conflict of interest statement

Publication types

MeSH terms

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources