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. 2022 Nov 28:1-34.
doi: 10.1007/s00168-022-01191-1. Online ahead of print.

A joint Bayesian spatiotemporal risk prediction model of COVID-19 incidence, IC admission, and death with application to Sweden

I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya  1   2 , Henk Folmer  1   2 , Johan Lundberg  3
Affiliations

A joint Bayesian spatiotemporal risk prediction model of COVID-19 incidence, IC admission, and death with application to Sweden

I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya et al. Ann Reg Sci. .

Abstract

The three closely related COVID-19 outcomes of incidence, intensive care (IC) admission and death, are commonly modelled separately leading to biased estimation of the parameters and relatively poor forecasts. This paper presents a joint spatiotemporal model of the three outcomes based on weekly data that is used for risk prediction and identification of hotspots. The paper applies a pure spatiotemporal model consisting of structured and unstructured spatial and temporal effects and their interaction capturing the effects of the unobserved covariates. The pure spatiotemporal model limits the data requirements to the three outcomes and the population at risk per spatiotemporal unit. The empirical study for the 21 Swedish regions for the period 1 January 2020-4 May 2021 confirms that the joint model predictions outperform the separate model predictions. The fifteen-week-ahead spatiotemporal forecasts (5 May-11 August 2021) show a significant decline in the relative risk of COVID-19 incidence, IC admission, death and number of hotspots.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00168-022-01191-1.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interestNot applicable.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Posterior means of the relative risk for (a) incidence, (b) IC admission, and (c) Death for selected weeks for W11-15 (11 Mar 2020–8 Apr 2020), W17 (22 Apr 2020), W18 (29 Apr 2020), W21 (20 May 2020), W24 (10 Jun 2020), W26 (24 Jun 2020), W27 (1 Jul 2020), W43 (21 Oct 2020), W44 (28 Oct 2020), W45 (4 Nov 2020), W47 (18 Nov 2020), W48 (25 Nov 2020), W57 (27 Jan 2021), W58 (3 Feb 2021), W59 (10 Feb 2021), W60 (17 Feb 2021), W68 (14 Apr 2021), W70 (28 Apr 2021). W refers to the week and the date to the beginning of the week
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Observed and out-of-sample predicted relative risk using individual and joint modelling for a incidence, b IC admission, and c death for selected weeks (see note 24)
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Observed and predicted relative risk hotspots for individual and joint modelling a incidence, b IC admission, and c death for selected weeks (given in note 24)
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Predicted weekly relative COVID-19 risk of a incidence, b IC admission, and c death for W71-85 (5 May 2021—11 August 2021)
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Weekly numbers of new incidences, IC admissions, and deaths per region. Note: The primary axis on the left-hand side denotes the weekly number of incidences, the secondary axis on the right-hand side the numbers of IC admissions and deaths
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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