Impact of Federal Lung Cancer Screening Policy on the Incidence of Early-stage Lung Cancer

Abstract

Background: In December 2013 the US Preventative Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommended annual lung cancer screening for high-risk patients. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) later announced coverage in 2015. The impact of these federal decisions at the population level is unknown.

Methods: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, we studied changes in lung cancer incidence by stage and linked to US census data to obtain age-adjusted estimates standardized to the US population. Based on age at diagnosis we stratified patients as age-eligible or age-ineligible for screening. We used difference-in-differences regression to determine the effect of screening on lung cancer incidence by stage.

Results: For all age groups the incidence of early-stage lung cancer both before and after the USPSTF guidelines remained relatively stable at 12.8 ± 0.52 and 13.5 ± 0.92 per 100,000 patients, respectively (P = .068). However the difference-in-differences analysis estimated an absolute increase in the age-adjusted incidence by 3.4 per 100,000 persons in the age-eligible group after the announcement of the guidelines (P = .007). The effect was even larger after the CMS decision (4.3/100,000 persons, P < .001). Similarly there was a 14.2 per 100,000 persons absolute reduction in the incidence of advanced-stage lung cancer (P < .001).

Conclusions: The 2013 USPSTF lung cancer screening guidelines and CMS coverage decisions were associated with an increased incidence of early-stage lung cancer and decreased incidence of advance-staged lung cancer at the population level.