Evolution of breast cancer incidence in young women in a French registry from 1990 to 2018: Towards a change in screening strategy?

Abstract

Background: The worldwide incidence of invasive breast cancer in women is increasing according to several studies. This increase in incidence seems to be higher in young women (< 40 years). However, the reasons for this trend are poorly understood. This article aims to provide the most recent estimates of this trend and assess whether there is indeed an increase in the incidence of breast cancer among young women to strengthen prevention campaigns.

Methods: We collected data from the Isere cancer registry in France of all invasive breast cancers from January 1990 to December 2018. The standardized incidence rate was calculated for four age groups (< 40 years, 40-49 years, 50-74 years, ≥ 75 years) for this period. The 10-year relative survival was evaluated for each age group age for two periods (1990-1999 and 2000-2008). From 2011 to 2013, we analyzed the incidence and 5-year relative survival by tumor subtype (triple negative, luminal, HER2 amplified) for each age group.

Results: A total of 23,703 cases were selected, including 1343 young women (< 40 years). The incidence of invasive breast cancer increased annually by 0,8% (95% CI 0,7; 1) in all age groups combined from 1990 to 2018. The highest incidence increase is found among young women, by 2,1% annually (95% CI 1,3; 2,8). Regarding tumor subtypes from 2011 to 2018, the incidence of triple negatives increases higher in young women (+ 1,4% by year, 95% CI - 8,2; 11) and those over 75 years (+ 4% by year, 95% CI - 5,1; 13,2), but the results are not statistically significant. 10-year relative survival in young women increased from 74,6% (95% CI 69,6; 78,9) to 78,3%(95% CI 73,7; 82,1) between 1990-1999 and 2000-2008, respectively. Five-year relative survival is better in young women among triple negative and HER2 amplified.

Conclusion: Our study confirms the current trend of increasing the incidence of breast cancer in young women, associated with improved survival very likely attributable to earlier diagnosis due to increased awareness, and improvements in treatment. A better individualized risk-based screening strategy is needed for these patients. Additional studies will be needed to more accurately assess the risk of developing breast cancer and improve diagnostic performance.

Keywords: Breast cancer; Incidence; Risk factors; Subtypes; Survival; Young women.

Fig. 1

Average annual percentage of change of invasive breast cancer by age at diagnosis from 1990 to 2018 (France, Isere Department)

Fig. 2

Invasive breast cancer incidence rate for women < 40 years from 1990 to 2018 (France, Isere Department)

Fig. 3

Relative survival for invasive breast cancer according to years at diagnosis by age (France, Isere Department)

Fig. 4

5-year relative survival rates for non-metastatic triple-negative breast cancer among women diagnosed from 2011 to 2013 (France, Isere Department)

Fig. 5

5-year relative survival rates for non-metastatic Her2 amplified breast cancer among women diagnosed from 2011 to 2013 (France, Isere Department)

Fig. 6

5-year relative survival rates for non-metastatic luminal breast cancer among women diagnosed from 2011 to 2013 (France, Isere Department)