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. 2023 Feb;67(2):367-376.
doi: 10.1007/s00484-022-02415-x. Epub 2022 Dec 12.

Global warming modifies the seasonal distribution of clutches on a Mediterranean great tit population

Iris Solís  1 , Elena Álvarez  2 , Emilio Barba  2
Affiliations

Global warming modifies the seasonal distribution of clutches on a Mediterranean great tit population

Iris Solís et al. Int J Biometeorol. 2023 Feb.

Abstract

Global warming has multiple effects on phenological events on a wide range of plants and animals. Specifically, many bird species have advanced the start of their breeding season, which could also imply an extension in its duration and also a change in the distribution of clutches throughout the breeding season. We have tested whether this occurred in a population of Great Tits (Parus major), in Sagunto (eastern Spain). The increase of March temperatures between 1986 and 2019 was related to an advancement of the breeding season. Although the breeding season was longer in years with higher June temperatures, the length did not show a temporal trend throughout the study period. The clutches were more concentrated at the beginning of the season (increase in the skewness), while the kurtosis ("tailedness" of the distribution) or the modality did not change significantly. Finally, the number of "equally good months" for breeding (a combined measure of length and distribution) has not changed throughout the years. Overall, all these phenological changes probably caused the observed increased proportion of pairs laying two clutches per year. It remains to be studied whether this increase in reproductive effort has positive or negative impact on fitness.

Keywords: Breeding season length; Climate change; Parus major; Phenology; Spain; Spring temperatures.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Spring temperatures increased in Sagunto from 1986 to 2019; the figure shows those of April as an example
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Mean laying dates of first clutches became earlier in Sagunto from 1986 to 2019. Dates presented as “April dates” (1 = 1st April)
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
The breeding season of great tits finished earlier when the laying date of the first clutches was earlier. The end of the season was estimated as the 90th percentile of the clutch distribution
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
The proportion of great tit pairs that attempted a late clutch increased from 1993 to 2019
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
The duration of the breeding season of great tits (in days) was longer as June temperatures were higher (R.2 = 18.6%, F1,26 = 5.697, P = 0.025)
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
The kurtosis of the data of distribution of great tit clutches along the breeding season showed a negative trend from 1986 to 2019 with a high variation among years, although it was not statistically significative (R2 = 10.1%, F1,33 = 3.602, P = 0.067). Histograms show two extreme years: 1991, with the lowest kurtosis value, and 2008, with the highest one. For visual simplicity, the clutches were grouped in 15-day periods; dates are April dates
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
The skewness values of the distribution of great tit clutches along the breeding season increased significantly from 1986 to 2019 (R2 = 14.8%, F1,33 = 5.571, P = 0.025). Histograms show 2 extreme years: 1991, with the lowest skewness value, and 2011, with the highest one. For visual simplicity, the clutches were grouped in 15-day periods; dates are April dates
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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