The burden of heatwave-related preterm births and associated human capital losses in China

Abstract

Frequent heatwaves under global warming can increase the risk of preterm birth (PTB), which in turn will affect physical health and human potential over the life course. However, what remains unknown is the extent to which anthropogenic climate change has contributed to such burdens. We combine health impact and economic assessment methods to comprehensively evaluate the entire heatwave-related PTB burden in dimensions of health, human capital and economic costs. Here, we show that during 2010-2020, an average of 13,262 (95%CI 6,962-18,802) PTBs occurred annually due to heatwave exposure in China. In simulated scenarios, 25.8% (95%CI 17.1%-34.5%) of heatwave-related PTBs per year on average can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, which further result in substantial human capital losses, estimated at over $1 billion costs. Our findings will provide additional impetus for introducing more stringent climate mitigation policies and also call for more sufficient adaptations to reduce heatwave detriments to newborn.

Fig. 1. Spatial-temporal distribution of heatwave days in actual climate and those caused by anthropogenic climate change in China.

HWDs, heatwave days. a The temporal trend of observed national HWDs in actual climate during 1979-2020. b Temporal trends of simulated HWDs in the factual (with anthropogenic climate change) and counterfactual (without anthropogenic climate change) scenarios. Solid lines denote the annual mean HWDs across the 10 General Circulation Models and the shaded areas correspond to 95%CIs across the mean estimates. The differences between HWDs of the two scenarios are HWDs attributed to anthropogenic climate change. c Spatial distribution (at a 0.5-degree spatial resolution) of annual average HWDs in actual climate during 2010-2020. d Spatial distribution of annual average HWDs induced by anthropogenic warming.

Fig. 2. Heatwave-attributable preterm births in actual climate and those induced by anthropogenic climate change in China during 2010-2020.

aPTBs, heatwave-attributable preterm births. a The temporal trend of aPTBs in actual climate which were based on the observed HWDs during 2010-2020. The solid line shows the point estimates with the shading encompassing their 95%CIs, and the dashed line shows the linear regression. b The temporal trend of the proportion of aPTBs induced by anthropogenic warming to aPTBs in the factual scenario. The solid line and shade area correspond to the proportion estimates and their 95%CIs, respectively. The blue dashed line fits the proportions in 2010-2015, while the red dashed line fits the proportions during 2016-2020. c Spatial distribution of annual average aPTBs in actual climate in 0.5-degree grids. d Spatial distribution of the annual average aPTBs in relation to anthropogenic warming. e Spatial distribution of annual average aPTBs per million living births in actual climate. f Spatial distribution of aPTBs per million living births that were induced by anthropogenic climate change.