The potential of Facebook advertising data for understanding flows of people from Ukraine to the European Union

Abstract

This work contributes to the discussion on how innovative data can support a fast crisis response. We use operational data from Facebook to gain useful insights on where people fleeing Ukraine following the Russian invasion are likely to be displaced, focusing on the European Union. In this context, it is extremely important to anticipate where these people are moving so that local and national authorities can better manage challenges related to their reception and integration. By means of the audience estimates provided by Facebook advertising platform, we analyse the flows of people fleeing Ukraine towards the European Union. At the fifth week since the beginning of the war, our results indicate an increase in the number of Ukrainian stocks derived from Ukrainian-speaking Facebook user estimates in all the European Union (EU) countries, with Poland registering the highest percentage share (33%) of the overall increase, followed by Germany (17%), and Czechia (15%). We assess the reliability of prewar Facebook estimates by comparison with official statistics on the Ukrainian diaspora, finding a strong correlation between the two data sources (Pearson's $r=0.9$ , $p<0.0001$ ). We then compare our results with data on refugees in EU countries bordering Ukraine reported by the UNHCR, and we observe a similarity in their trend. In conclusion, we show how Facebook advertising data could offer timely insights on international mobility during crises, supporting initiatives aimed at providing humanitarian assistance to the displaced people, as well as local and national authorities to better manage their reception and integration.

Keywords: Armed conflict; Crisis response; Facebook; Human migration; Innovative data; Ukraine.

Figure 1

Prewar MAUs vs over 18 Ukrainian diaspora. Scatter-plot (logarithmic scale) of prewar Facebook MAUs at national level against Ukrainian diaspora in 21 EU countries (official statistics relative to 2021). Upper plot: original MAUs. Lower plot: adjusted MAUs

Figure 2

Percentage share of Ukrainian stocks in EU at week 5. Percentage share of estimated Ukrainian stocks change in the EU countries between the beginning of the war and the fifth week. Only countries with significant increments ($>2\mathrm{\%}$) are shown

Figure 3

Facebook MAUs vs UNHCR data. Normalized weekly absolute change of Facebook Monthly Active Users and normalized daily absolute change of arrivals from UNHCR for the available weeks (logarithmic scale)