Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2022 Dec 15;19(24):16884.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph192416884.

Exploring the Impact and Prevention of Epidemics from a New Perspective: COVID-19 Transmission through Express Boxes

Saierdaer Aikebaier  1   2 , Yinghua Song  1   2 , Moxiao Li  1   2 , Jiexin Liu  1   2
Affiliations

Exploring the Impact and Prevention of Epidemics from a New Perspective: COVID-19 Transmission through Express Boxes

Saierdaer Aikebaier et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

The number of express boxes worldwide exceeded 170 billion in 2021, and, from several regions in China, tested positive. Therefore, it is important to study the transmission of viruses through express boxes. In this paper, we establish a model of express box virus transmission based on comprehensive consideration of environmental factors, such as temperature, disinfection, humidity, virus release intensity, and volume of vehicle, to study the transmission of express box virus, and explore the spatial and geographic spread variation of express box viruses in China. Several important findings emerged from the study, including: (1) Disinfection can prolong the spread of viruses in the express box for ≥21 h; (2) For every 1 °C rise in temperature, the infected time can be prolonged by ≥1.2 h, and for every 10% rise in relative humidity, the virus transmission time can be prolonged by ≥1.32 h; (3) In an environment suitable for virus transmission, when loaded with 1000, 2000, 4000 express boxes, areas where the express delivery time exceeds 22.56, 18, 14.64 h will face the risk of all the boxes in the carriage being infected. These findings could help public health departments prevent the risk of virus transmission from express boxes.

Keywords: COVID-19; express boxes; pandemic; prevention; spatial and geographic transmission.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Effect of temperature change on virus transmission on express boxes: ((a) Unsterilized, (b) Sterilized, and the subfigures show the lines represented by the different temperatures).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Effect of humidity change on virus transmission in express boxes when (a) sterilized and T = 30 °C, (b) unsterilized and T = 10 °C (The subfigures show the lines represented by the different relative humidity).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Effect of changes in the number of express boxes on virus transmission in an environment suitable for virus ((a,b) The subfigures show the lines represented by the different number of boxes).
Figure 4
Figure 4
(a) Relationship between the number of boxes and the time of infection, (b) Change of virus infection rate at different number of boxes.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Virus outbreak nodes (virus propagation growth rate ≥ 50%. Red) and the safe time node that can effectively control the virus (virus transmission growth rate < 50%. Yellow).
Figure 6
Figure 6
(a) is the radius of the optimal geographical area for the prevention of courier box viruses in different number of express boxes and (b) is the effect of courier vehicle travel speed and the number of boxes on the optimal area for prevention.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Spatial-geographic influence of the number of express boxes on the transmission of the virus (the first three are the most suitable environment for virus transmission. The last one is the unsuitable environment for virus transmission).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Similar articles

See all similar articles

References

    1. Wang M., Jiang A., Gong L., Lu L., Guo W., Li C., Zheng J., Li C., Yang B., Zeng J., et al. Temperature significant change COVID-19 Transmission in 429 cities. medRxiv. 2020 doi: 10.1101/2020.02.22.20025791. - DOI
    1. Chin A.W.H., Chu J.T.S., Perera M.R.A., Hui K.P.Y., Yen H.-L., Chan M.C.W., Peiris M., Poon L.L.M. Stability of SARS-CoV-2 in different environmental conditions. Lancet Microbe. 2020;1:e10. doi: 10.1016/S2666-5247(20)30003-3. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Zhang N., Chen X., Jia W., Jin T., Xiao S., Chen W., Hang J., Ou C., Lei H., Qian H., et al. Evidence for lack of transmission by close contact and surface touch in a restaurant outbreak of COVID-19. J. Infect. 2021;83:207–216. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2021.05.030. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Fu Z., Yan Y., Guo Q., Qiu Z. Mechanism and control of fresh agricultural supply chain logistics risk transfer. J. Southwest Jiaotong Univ. 2018;53:654–660.
    1. Mecenas P., da Rosa Moreira Bastos R.T., Vallinoto A.C.R., Normando D. Effects of temperature and humidity on the spread of COVID-19: A systematic review. PLoS ONE. 2020;15:e0238339. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0238339. - DOI - PMC - PubMed