Determinants of Anti-S Immune Response at 9 Months after COVID-19 Vaccination in a Multicentric European Cohort of Healthcare Workers-ORCHESTRA Project

Abstract

Background: The persistence of antibody levels after COVID-19 vaccination has public health relevance. We analyzed the determinants of quantitative serology at 9 months after vaccination in a multicenter cohort. Methods: We analyzed data on anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody levels at 9 months from the first dose of vaccinated HCW from eight centers in Italy, Germany, Spain, Romania and Slovakia. Serological levels were log-transformed to account for the skewness of the distribution and normalized by dividing them by center-specific standard errors. We fitted center-specific multivariate regression models to estimate the cohort-specific relative risks (RR) of an increase of one standard deviation of log antibody level and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI), and combined them in random-effects meta-analyses. Finally, we conducted a trend analysis of 1 to 7 months' serology within one cohort. Results: We included 20,216 HCW with up to two vaccine doses and showed that high antibody levels were associated with female sex (p = 0.01), age (RR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.86-0.88 per 10-year increase), 10-day increase in time since last vaccine (RR = 0.97, 95% CI 0.97-0.98), previous infection (3.03, 95% CI = 2.92-3.13), two vaccine doses (RR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.09-1.36), use of Spikevax (OR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.39-1.64), Vaxzevria (OR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.44-0.73) or heterologous vaccination (OR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.12-1.57), compared to Comirnaty. The trend in the Bologna cohort, based on 3979 measurements, showed a decrease in mean standardized antibody level from 8.17 to 7.06 (1-7 months, p for trend 0.005). Conclusions: Our findings corroborate current knowledge on the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine-induced immunity and declining trend with time.

Keywords: COVID-19; antibody level; immunization; serology; temporal trends; vaccine.

Figure 1

Mean level of standardized log anti-S level in the Bologna cohort, by month since 1st vaccine dose. SE, standard error. p-value of test for linear trend = 0.005.