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. 2023 Mar:120:106147.
doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106147. Epub 2022 Dec 21.

Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic

Terrie Walmsley  1   2 , Adam Rose  1   3 , Richard John  1   4 , Dan Wei  1   3 , Jakub P Hlávka  1   3   5 , Juan Machado  1 , Katie Byrd  1   4
Affiliations

Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic

Terrie Walmsley et al. Econ Model. 2023 Mar.

Abstract

We estimate the economic impacts of COVID-19 in the U.S. using a disaster economic consequence analysis framework implemented by a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. This facilitates identification of relative influences of several causal factors as "shocks" to the model, including mandatory business closures, disease spread trajectories, behavioral responses, resilience, pent-up demand, and government stimulus packages. The analysis is grounded in primary data on avoidance behavior and healthcare parameters. The decomposition of the influence of various causal factors will help policymakers offset the negative influences and reinforce the positive ones during the remainder of this pandemic and future ones.

Keywords: Avoidance behavior; CGE Modeling; COVID-19; Disaster economics; Resilience.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Summary of percentage decreases in activities across six domains during the pandemic compared to pre-pandemic attributable to behavioral avoidance of covid.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Percent Changes in Semi-annual GDP by Causal Factor. (cumulative percent change over time).
Fig. A 1
Fig. A 1
Probability of Infection by Region, by Month.
Figure A-2
Figure A-2
Estimates of Infected International Travelers Entering the U.S.(Daily Average by Month).
Fig. A 3a
Fig. A 3a
Scenario 1 - Percent Reductions in R0 for 2020–22.
Fig. A 3b
Fig. A 3b
Scenario 2 - Percent Reductions in R0 for 2020–22.
Fig. A3c
Fig. A3c
Scenario 3a - Percent Reductions in R0 for 2020–22.
Fig. A 3d
Fig. A 3d
Scenario 3b - Percent Reductions in R0 for 2020–22. .
Fig. A4
Fig. A4
Graphs of Cumulative Predicted Deaths for the 4 Scenarios.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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