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. 2023 Mar;86(3):e75-e77.
doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2022.12.022. Epub 2023 Jan 2.

Flattening the curve: imperative when China eases the severe COVID-19 control policy

Shilei Zhao  1 , Tong Sha  1 , Yongbiao Xue  2 , Hua Chen  3
Affiliations

Flattening the curve: imperative when China eases the severe COVID-19 control policy

Shilei Zhao et al. J Infect. 2023 Mar.
No abstract available

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; Flattening curve; Healthcare system.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig. 1
Healthcare system overwhelmed by the shortage of medical resources after retracting the severe COVID-19 control policy. (A) ICU beds per 100,000 people compared with the developed countries. (B) Uneven distribution of population and medical resources in China. The colors on the below map represent population density and the colors on the bottom map represent the number of ICU beds per 100,000 people. (C) Prediction of the ICU bed demand using SUVQC model after retracting the severe control policy. We used the hospitalizations rate of 2.6% and the ICU admissions rate of 0.27% for Omicron patients. The red line indicates the total number of ICU beds in Beijing.
Fig 2
Fig. 2
Estimation of ICU demand under different NPI intensities of the flattening curve strategy. (A-D): 80%, 60%, 40%, and 20% of transmissions of the usual level. The peak values are 23444, 22414, 19511, and 9124, respectively.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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