Relaxation of anti-COVID-19 measures reveals new challenges for infectious disease outbreak forecasting

Affiliations

¹ Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK. Electronic address: oliver.brady@lshtm.ac.uk.
² HR Wallingford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK.
³ Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK; Data for Science and Health, Wellcome Trust, London, UK.
⁴ Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK; People and Nature Lab, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK.
⁵ Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies, Barcelona, Spain.
⁶ General Department of Preventive Medicine, Hanoi, Vietnam.
⁷ National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam.

PMID: 36623523
PMCID: PMC9822274
DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00003-8

Relaxation of anti-COVID-19 measures reveals new challenges for infectious disease outbreak forecasting

Oliver J Brady et al. Lancet Infect Dis. 2023 Feb.

. 2023 Feb;23(2):144-146.

doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00003-8. Epub 2023 Jan 6.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK. Electronic address: oliver.brady@lshtm.ac.uk.
² HR Wallingford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK.
³ Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK; Data for Science and Health, Wellcome Trust, London, UK.
⁴ Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK; People and Nature Lab, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK.
⁵ Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies, Barcelona, Spain.
⁶ General Department of Preventive Medicine, Hanoi, Vietnam.
⁷ National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam.

PMID: 36623523
PMCID: PMC9822274
DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00003-8

No abstract available

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Conflict of interest statement

We declare no competing interests.

Figures

Carrying out an inspection for dengue mosquito larvae in southern Vietnam. Photo by Vu Sinh Nam. Contact photolibrary@ausaid.gov.au to request a high resolution original.

See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

1. Chen Y, Li N, Lourenço J, et al. Measuring the effects of COVID-19-related disruption on dengue transmission in southeast Asia and Latin America: a statistical modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2022;22:657–667. - PMC - PubMed
1. Colón-González FJ, Soares Bastos L, Hofmann B, et al. Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: a modelling study using superensembles. PLoS Med. 2021;18:e1003542. - PMC - PubMed
1. PAHO PLISA Health Information Platform for the Americas. Reported cases of dengue fever in the Americas. 2022. https://www3.paho.org/data/index.php/en/mnu-topics/indicadores-dengue-en...
1. van Panhuis WG, Choisy M, Xiong X, et al. Region-wide synchrony and traveling waves of dengue across eight countries in Southeast Asia. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2015;112:13069–13074. - PMC - PubMed
1. Morrison AC, Minnick SL, Rocha C, et al. Epidemiology of dengue virus in Iquitos, Peru 1999 to 2005: interepidemic and epidemic patterns of transmission. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2010;4:e670. - PMC - PubMed

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Relaxation of anti-COVID-19 measures reveals new challenges for infectious disease outbreak forecasting

Affiliations

Relaxation of anti-COVID-19 measures reveals new challenges for infectious disease outbreak forecasting

Authors

Affiliations

Conflict of interest statement

Figures

References

MeSH terms

Grants and funding

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources

Medical