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. 2023 Mar;40(3):1114-1128.
doi: 10.1007/s12325-022-02415-8. Epub 2023 Jan 12.

Obesity Burden and Impact of Weight Loss in Saudi Arabia: A Modelling Study

Saleh A Alqahtani #  1   2 , Hussain A Al-Omar #  3   4 , Ali Alshehri  5 , Abdulmohsen Abanumay  6 , Hana Alabdulkarim  7 , Ali Alrumaih  8 , Mahmoud S Eldin  6 , Volker Schnecke  9
Affiliations

Obesity Burden and Impact of Weight Loss in Saudi Arabia: A Modelling Study

Saleh A Alqahtani et al. Adv Ther. 2023 Mar.

Abstract

Background: Obesity and its complications are associated with morbidity, mortality and high economic cost in Saudi Arabia. Estimating this impact at the population level and potential benefits to be gained from obesity reduction is vital to underpin policy initiatives to prevent disease risks.

Methods: We combined data in an adapted version of the value of weight loss simulation model, to predict reductions in complication rates and cost savings achievable with 15% weight loss in Saudi Arabia over 10 years. To obtain model inputs, we conducted a systematic literature review (SLR) to identify data on the prevalence of obesity and its complications in Saudi Arabia, and surveyed specialist physicians and hospital administrators in public (governmental) and private healthcare sectors. We used combinations of age, sex, obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D) rates in Saudi Arabia to sample a United Kingdom (UK) cohort, creating a synthetic Saudi Arabia cohort expected to be representative of the population.

Results: The synthetic Saudi Arabia cohort reflected expected comorbidity prevalences in the population, with a higher estimated prevalence of T2D, hypertension and dyslipidaemia than the UK cohort in all age groups. For 100,000 people with body mass index 30-50 kg/m2, it was estimated that 15% weight loss would lead to a 53.9% reduction in obstructive sleep apnoea, a 37.4% reduction in T2D and an 18.8% reduction in asthma. Estimated overall cost savings amounted to 1.026 billion Saudi Arabian Riyals; the largest contributors were reductions in T2D (30% of total cost savings for year 10), dyslipidaemia (26%) and hypertension (19%).

Conclusions: Sustained weight loss could significantly alleviate the burden of obesity-related complications in Saudi Arabia. Adopting obesity reduction as a major policy aim, and ensuring access to support and treatment should form an important part of the transformation of the healthcare system, as set out under 'Vision 2030'.

Keywords: Cost savings; Economic burden; Healthcare costs; Obesity; Obesity-related complication; Overweight; Prevalence; Saudi Arabia; Vision 2030; Weight loss.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Estimate of ORC incidence using the adapted value of weight loss simulation model. In the UK population, the group of men with age 35–39 years, BMI 38 kg/m2, and T2D has 2530 individuals, and the risk engine estimates 320 incidence CKD diagnoses for this group over the coming 10 years. The corresponding group in the synthetic Saudi Arabia cohort has 4280 individuals, i.e., is 1.7-times the size of the UK group, so the expected number of incidence CKD diagnosis for this group in the Saudi Arabia cohort is 1.7 × 320 = 540. AF atrial fibrillation, BMI body mass index, CKD chronic kidney disease, HF heart failure, T2D type 2 diabetes
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Estimated impact on obesity-related complications of stable weight maintenance or 15% weight loss in a cohort of 100,000 people with obesity from the synthetic Saudi Arabia cohort. CKD chronic kidney disease, MI myocardial infarction, T2D type 2 diabetes
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Estimated cost savings achieved via 15% weight loss in a cohort of 100,000 individuals with obesity (BMI 30–50 kg/m2) in year 10 per ORC (a) and over 10 years for all ORCs (b). CKD chronic kidney disease, MI myocardial infarction, ORC obesity-related complication, SAR Saudi Arabian Riyals, T2D type 2 diabetes, USD, US dollars
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