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. 2023 Mar;29(3):579-582.
doi: 10.1038/s41591-023-02212-y. Epub 2023 Jan 13.

Estimating the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BF.7 in Beijing after adjustment of the zero-COVID policy in November-December 2022

Kathy Leung  1   2   3 , Eric H Y Lau  4   5 , Carlos K H Wong  5   6   7 , Gabriel M Leung  4   5 , Joseph T Wu  4   5   8
Affiliations

Estimating the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BF.7 in Beijing after adjustment of the zero-COVID policy in November-December 2022

Kathy Leung et al. Nat Med. 2023 Mar.

Abstract

We tracked the effective reproduction number (Rt) of the predominant severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant Omicron BF.7 in Beijing in November-December 2022 by fitting a transmission dynamic model parameterized with real-time mobility data to (i) the daily number of new symptomatic cases on 1-11 November (when China's zero-COVID interventions were still strictly enforced) and (ii) the proportion of individuals who participated in online polls on 10-22 December and self-reported to have been test-positive since 1 November. After China's announcement of 20 measures to transition from zero-COVID, we estimated that Rt increased to 3.44 (95% credible interval (CrI): 2.82-4.14) on 18 November and the infection incidence peaked on 11 December. We estimated that the cumulative infection attack rate (IAR; that is, proportion of the population infected since 1 November) in Beijing was 75.7% (95% CrI: 60.7-84.4) on 22 December 2022 and 92.3% (95% CrI: 91.4-93.1) on 31 January 2023. Surveillance programs should be rapidly set up to monitor the evolving epidemiology and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 across China.

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