Prognostic value of steroid hormone receptors: multivariate analysis of systemically untreated patients with node negative primary breast cancer

Abstract

The value of estrogen and progesterone receptor (ER and PgR, respectively) determinations in predicting the recurrence-free survival (RFS) has been evaluated in a group of 807 node negative breast cancer patients. All of these patients are enrolled in the Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group (DBCG) 77-1a and 82-a protocols for low risk patients, and none of them have received systemic adjuvant therapy. At a median observation time of 50 months and in an evaluation of the total patient population as an entity, ER+ patients had only a marginally significant (P = 0.07) longer RFS than ER- patients while PgR+ patients experienced a significant advantage (P = 0.02). Among patients subgrouped according to menopausal status, both ER and PgR statuses were found to be significant prognostic factors for predicting RFS in the premenopausal women (less than 50 years) but not in peri- or postmenopausal women. Using Cox's multivariate analysis, nuclear pleomorphy was found to be the only significant prognostic variable, while the value of PgR status as a prognostic factor approached significance (P = 0.065). Although knowledge of ER status did not significantly improve distinction between patients with good and poor prognoses in the relatively small subgroup of premenopausal patients (n = 120) when PgR status was known, ER+PgR- patients have a lower risk of recurrence or death than ER-PgR- patients. Using a log-likelihood model, significant and distinct cut-off limits for the definition of receptor positivity were found for premenopausal patients: these were 5 fmol/mg cytosol protein for ER and 10 fmol/mg cytosol protein for PgR. These cut-off levels may reflect the ability of the ligand binding assay method used to discriminate between tissues with and without receptor proteins. Qualitative assessment of receptor status was as valuable as quantitative expression of receptor concentrations in predicting the RFS of the natural course of the disease among node negative premenopausal patients.