Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2022 Dec 30;8(1):30.
doi: 10.3390/tropicalmed8010030.

Identification of Hazard and Socio-Demographic Patterns of Dengue Infections in a Colombian Subtropical Region from 2015 to 2020: Cox Regression Models and Statistical Analysis

Santiago Ortiz  1 , Alexandra Catano-Lopez  1 , Henry Velasco  1 , Juan P Restrepo  1 , Andrés Pérez-Coronado  1 , Henry Laniado  1 , Víctor Leiva  2
Affiliations

Identification of Hazard and Socio-Demographic Patterns of Dengue Infections in a Colombian Subtropical Region from 2015 to 2020: Cox Regression Models and Statistical Analysis

Santiago Ortiz et al. Trop Med Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Dengue is a disease of high interest for public health in the affected localities. Dengue virus is transmitted by Aedes species and presents hyperendemic behaviors in tropical and subtropical regions. Colombia is one of the countries most affected by the dengue virus in the Americas. Its central-west region is a hot spot in dengue transmission, especially the Department of Antioquia, which has suffered from multiple dengue outbreaks in recent years (2015-2016 and 2019-2020). In this article, we perform a retrospective analysis of the confirmed dengue cases in Antioquia, discriminating by both subregions and dengue severity from 2015 to 2020. First, we conduct an exploratory analysis of the epidemic data, and then a statistical survival analysis is carried out using a Cox regression model. Our findings allow the identification of the hazard and socio-demographic patterns of dengue infections in the Colombian subtropical region of Antioquia from 2015 to 2020.

Keywords: arbovirus; clinical deterioration; endemic; proportional hazard; tropical diseases.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Study zone. (a) Location of Antioquia Department. (b) The territorial subdivision of Antioquia consists of nine subregions that have a high geographic diversity; see Table 1 for further information about each subregion.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Choropleth map of normalized dengue prevalence in Colombia for cases reported during 2015–2020.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Time-series of reported dengue cases per subregion during 2015–2020. Different colors in the graphs represent the time-frames.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Barcharts for socio-demographic variables, discriminated by subregion, including sex, age groups, ethnic minority groups, type of occupation, and social grouping. For more details and p-values, we refer the reader to Table 4 and Table 5.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Survival functions for deterioration time according to the robust Cox regression model presented in Table 9.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Calderón A., Guzmán C., Oviedo-Socarras T., Mattar S., Rodríguez V., Castañeda V., Moraes Figueiredo L.T. Two cases of natural infection of dengue-2 virus in bats in the Colombian Caribbean. Trop. Med. Infect. Dis. 2021;6:35. doi: 10.3390/tropicalmed6010035. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Ioos S., Mallet H.P., Goffart I.L., Gauthier V., Cardoso T., Herida M. Current zika virus epidemiology and recent epidemics. Med. Mal. Infect. 2014;44:302–307. doi: 10.1016/j.medmal.2014.04.008. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Mordecai E.A., Cohen J.M., Evans M.V., Gudapati P., Johnson L.R., Lippi C.A., Miazgowicz K., Murdock C.C., Rohr J.R., Ryan S.J., et al. Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 2017;11:e0005568. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005568. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Wang H., Naghavi M., Allen C., Barber R.M., Bhutta Z.A., Carter A., Casey D.C., Charlson F.J., Chen A.Z., Coates M.M., et al. Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2015. Lancet. 2016;388:1459–1544. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31012-1. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Desjardins M.R., Casas I., Victoria A.M., Carbonell D., Dávalos D.M., Delmelle E.M. Knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding dengue, chikungunya, and zika in Cali, Colombia. Health Place. 2020;63:102339. doi: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2020.102339. - DOI - PubMed

LinkOut - more resources