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. 2023 Jan 15;8(1):65.
doi: 10.3390/tropicalmed8010065.

The Risk of Emerging of Dengue Fever in Romania, in the Context of Global Warming

Larisa Maria Ivanescu  1 , Ilie Bodale  2 , Smaranda Grigore-Hristodorescu  3 , Gabriela Martinescu  1 , Bianca Andronic  1 , Simona Matiut  4 , Doina Azoicai  3 , Liviu Miron  1
Affiliations

The Risk of Emerging of Dengue Fever in Romania, in the Context of Global Warming

Larisa Maria Ivanescu et al. Trop Med Infect Dis. .

Abstract

(1) Background: Few studies to date have assessed the influences induced by climate change on the spatial distribution and population abundance of Aedes albopictus using the latest climate scenarios. In this study, we updated the current distribution of Ae. albopictus mosquitoes and evaluated the changes in their distribution under future climate conditions, as well as the risk of dengue virus emergence in Romania. (2) Methods: Under the two scenarios: High scenario (HS) when no drastic measures to reduce the effects of global warming will be taken, or they are not effective and low scenario (LS) when very stringent greenhouse control measures will be implemented. (3) Results: The results estimate an increase in temperatures in Romania of up to 2.6 °C in HS and up to 0.4 °C in LS, with an increase in the period of virus replication within the vector from June to October in HS and from May to September in LS. Moreover, in 2022, Ae. albopictus was reported in a new county, where it was not identified at the last monitoring in 2020. (4) Conclusions: The rapid spread of this invasive species and the need to implement monitoring and control programs for the Aedes population in Romania are emphasized.

Keywords: Aedes albopictus; bioclimatic indices; climate conditions; dengue risk in Europe; spatial distribution.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
CDC Light Traps and the areas considered favorable for the development of the vector.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The number of imported cases of dengue fever registered in Romania between 2009 and 2020.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Ae. albopictus: (A) Unfed female, (B) specific morphological feature of the thorax, (C) fed female, (D) specific morphological characters: Head, thorax, and abdomen.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Temperature evolution in Romania during 1990–2020.
Figure 5
Figure 5
The development of the Ae. albopictus populations.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Periods of dengue virus replication inside the vector.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Days with precipitation in the period 1990–2020.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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