Early Predictors of Disability and Cognition in Multiple Sclerosis Patients: A Long-Term Retrospective Analysis

Abstract

We conducted a retrospective analysis on multiple sclerosis (MS) patients with perceived cognitive decline and long disease duration to investigate early predictors of future cognitive impairment (CI) and motor disability. Sixty-five patients complaining of cognitive decline were assessed with an extensive neuropsychological battery at the last clinical follow-up and classified as mildly impaired, severely impaired, and cognitively spared based on the results. Motor disability was assessed with EDSS, MSSS, and ARMSS. Baseline demographic, clinical, and imaging parameters were retrospectively collected and inserted in separate multivariate regression models to investigate the predictive power of future impairment. Twenty-one patients (32.3%) showed no CI, seventeen (26.2%) showed mild CI, and twenty-seven (41.5%) showed severe CI. Older and less educated patients with higher EDSS, longer disease duration, and higher white matter lesion load (WMLL) at diagnosis (particularly with cerebellar involvement) were more likely to develop CI after a mean follow-up from diagnosis of 16.5 ± 6.9 years. DMT exposure was protective. The multivariate regression analyses confirmed WMLL, disease duration, and educational levels as the parameters with significant predictive value for future CI (R2 adjusted: 0.338 p: 0.001). Older patients with progressive phenotype both at diagnosis and T1 were more likely to be not fully ambulatory at T1 (R2 adjusted: 0.796 p: 0.0001). Our results further expand knowledge on early predictors of cognitive decline and evolution over time.

Keywords: biomarkers; cognition; disability predictors; multiple sclerosis; neurodegeneration; progression.