Simulating patterns of life: More representative time-activity patterns that account for context

Abstract

Background: Complex contributions of environment to health are intimately connected to human behavior. Modeling of human behaviors and their influences helps inform important policy decisions related to critical environmental and public health challenges. A typical approach to human behavior modeling involves generating daily schedules based on time-activity patterns of individual humans, simulating 'agents' with these schedules, and interpreting patterns of life that emerge from the simulation to inform a research question. Current behavior modeling, however, rarely incorporates the context that surrounds individuals' truly broad scope of activities and influences on those activities.

Objectives: We describe in detail a range of elements involved in generating time-activity patterns and connect work in the social science field of behavior modeling with applications in exposure science and environmental health. We propose a framework for behavior modeling that takes a systems approach and considers the broad scope of activities and influences required to simulate more representative patterns of life and thus improve modeling that underlies understanding of environmental contributions to health and associated decisions to promote and protect public health.

Methods: We describe an agent-based modeling approach reliant on generating a population's schedules, filtering the schedules, simulating behavior using the schedules, analyzing the emergent patterns, and interrogating results that leverages general empirical information in a systems context to inform fit-for-purpose action.

Discussion: We propose a centralized and standardized program to codify behavior information and generate population schedules that researchers can select from to simulate human behavior and holistically characterize human-environment interactions for a variety of public health applications.

Keywords: Behavior modeling; Exposure science; Patterns of life; Time-activity patterns.

Fig. 1.

Proposed behavior modeling process. At upper left, a centralized resource is responsible for generation of population schedules. At upper right, the population schedules are down-selected (filtered) using contextual parameters to those needed to address a given research question. At lower right, an agent-based model is used to simulate patterns of life of interest to the research question. At lower left, these patterns are evaluated for their impact and value to public health.