Concordance of Diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder Made by Pediatricians vs a Multidisciplinary Specialist Team

Abstract

Importance: Wait times for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) diagnosis are lengthy because of inadequate supply of specialist teams. General pediatricians may be able to diagnose some cases of ASD, thereby reducing wait times.

Objective: To determine the accuracy of ASD diagnostic assessments conducted by general pediatricians compared with a multidisciplinary team (MDT).

Design, setting, and participants: This prospective diagnostic study was conducted in and a specialist assessment center in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, and Ontario general pediatrician practices from June 2016 to March 2020. Children were younger than 5.5 years, referred with a developmental concern, and without an existing ASD diagnosis. Data analysis was performed from October 2021 to February 2022.

Exposures: The pediatrician and MDT each conducted blinded assessments and recorded a decision as to whether the child had ASD.

Main outcomes and measures: Main outcomes included sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). A logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with accurate pediatrician assessment for children with or without an ASD diagnosis.

Results: Seventeen pediatricians (12 women [71%]) participated in the study and referred 106 children (79 boys [75%]; mean [SD] age, 41.9 [13.3] months). Sixty participants (57%) were from minoritized racial and ethnic groups (eg, Black, Asian, Hispanic, Middle Eastern, and multiracial). Seventy-two participants (68%) received a diagnosis of ASD by the MDT. Sensitivity and specificity of the pediatrician assessments compared with MDT were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.67-0.83) and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.62-0.91), respectively. The PPV of the pediatrician assessments was 0.89 (95% CI, 0.80-0.94) (ie, 89% agreement with the MDT), and NPV was 0.60 (95% CI, 0.49-0.70) (ie, 60% agreement with the MDT). Higher pediatrician certainty (odds ratio [OR], 3.33; 95% CI, 1.71-7.34; P = .001) was associated with increased diagnostic accuracy for children with ASD. Lower accuracy was seen for children with higher Visual Reception subscale developmental skills (OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.89-0.97; P = .001), speaking abilities (OR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.03-0.67; P = .03), and White race (OR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.10-0.97; P = .04). Age, gender, and Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule, 2nd Edition composite scores were not significantly associated with the accuracy of assessments. All 7 children with a sibling with ASD received an accurate diagnosis; otherwise, no significant factors were identified for accuracy in children without ASD.

Conclusions and relevance: This study of concordance of autism assessment between pediatricians and an expert MDT in young children found high accuracy when general pediatricians felt confident and lower accuracy when ruling out ASD. These findings suggest that children with co-occurring delays may be potential candidates for community assessment.

Figure.. Sensitivity of General Pediatrician Autism Diagnosis by Pediatrician Certainty

Sensitivity is on the vertical axis, and general pediatrician certainty Likert ratings from 1 to 5 are presented on the horizontal axis. There were no certainty ratings of 1. Means are presented with dots and 95% CIs with bars.