Risk score for coronary heart disease (CHD-RISK) and hemodynamically significant aortic valve stenosis

Abstract

Background and aim: Multiple studies have investigated the association between coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors and aortic valve stenosis (AS). However, limited studies have explored the relationship between CHD risk scores and AS. Whether incident risk scores for coronary heart disease (CHD-RISK) may be applied to predict AS remains unclear. We aim to investigate the association between AS and CHD-RISK.

Methods and results: We included 4791 participants (age 54.6 ± 5.0 yrs, 58.7% women, 81% were of European origin), and CHD-RISK was estimated in 1990-1992. The participants were then followed-up until December 31, 2013. The primary outcome was hemodynamic significant AS identified by Doppler echocardiography in 2011-2013. We used multivariate-logistic regression models to assess the associations between CHD-RISK and AS. During follow-up, 963 (20.1%) cases of AS were identified. Per-standard deviation (6%) increase in CHD-RISK was associated with OR 95% Cl [1.194, 95% CI 1.068 to 1.335, p = 0.002] risk of AS in the fully adjusted models. Results were similar when stratified by quintiles of CHD-RISK, using the lowest quintiles <0.94% of CHD-RISK as the reference, 0.94%-2.26%, 2.26%-4.83%, 4.83%-9.21%, and >9.21% were; 1.33 (95% CI, 0.99-1.78, p = 0.055), 1.64 (95% CI, 1.17-2.29, p = 0.004), 2.23 (95% CI, 1.49-3.32, p = <0.001), 2.66 (95% CI, 1.65-4.31, p = <0.001) respectively.

Conclusions: CHD-RISK was associated with AS. CHD-RISK and AS were high in females, age ≥55 yrs, current smokers, and BMI ≥ 30 kg/m². This investigation suggests CHD-RISK may be applied to forecast AS risk similar to CHD. Future studies are required to detect, manage, and establish better treatment strategies in these high-risk subgroups.

Keywords: Aortic valve stenosis; Coronary heart disease risk score; Doppler echocardiography; Risk factor.