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. 2023 May 1;32(5):659-665.
doi: 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-22-1038.

Estimating the Number of Men Living with Metastatic Prostate Cancer in the United States

Theresa P Devasia  1 , Angela B Mariotto  1 , Yaw A Nyame  2 , Ruth Etzioni  3
Affiliations

Estimating the Number of Men Living with Metastatic Prostate Cancer in the United States

Theresa P Devasia et al. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. .

Abstract

Background: Metastatic prostate cancer (MPC) includes metastases detected at diagnosis (de novo) and those occurring after diagnosis with early-stage disease (recurrent). Cancer registries collect data only on de novo MPC, providing a partial picture of the burden of MPC. We use cancer registry data to estimate the number of men living with MPC in the United States including both de novo and recurrent cases.

Methods: We apply a back-calculation method to estimate MPC incidence and prevalence from U.S. prostate cancer mortality and de novo MPC relative survival for cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2017 in 18 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries. We hold overall prostate cancer mortality and MPC survival constant for future prevalence projections.

Results: On January 1, 2018, we estimated 120,400 U.S. men living with MPC (45% de novo, 55% recurrent). The age-adjusted prevalence in 2018 for Black men was over double that of White men (137.1 vs. 62.2 per 100,000 men). By 2030, 192,500 men are expected to be living with MPC, with the increase being driven by population growth projections.

Conclusions: The number of men living with MPC in the United States exceeds 100,000 and represents a small fraction of the >3 million men living with a prior diagnosis of prostate cancer.

Impact: Relatively similar fractions of de novo and recurrent MPC among prevalent cases highlight opportunities for management of localized disease in reducing the MPC burden. Changes in diagnostic technologies could lead to greater growth in MPC cases in the United States than projected. See related commentary by Stopsack et al., p. 585.

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Conflict of interest statement

CONFLICT OF INTEREST: TPD, ABM, and RE have nothing to disclose. YAN is a research consultant for Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics, which does not conflict with any of the work presented in this manuscript.

Figures

Figure 1:
Figure 1:
Prevalence over time for all races, assuming equal de novo and recurrent survival. Solid black line represents estimated number of new metastatic prostate cancer (MPC) cases; dashed blue line represents observed number of prostate cancer (PC) deaths; dotted red line indicates projections after 2018.
Figure 2:
Figure 2:
Prevalence over time for White men (left) and Black men (right), assuming equal de novo and recurrent survival. Solid black line represents estimated number of new metastatic prostate cancer (MPC) cases; dashed blue line represents observed number of prostate cancer (PC) deaths; dotted red line indicates projections after 2018.
Figure 3:
Figure 3:
Age-adjusted MPC prevalences per 100,000 men for White and Black men. Prevalences are based on estimates of de novo and recurrent prevalence and are standardized to US 2000 standard population. Dotted red line indicates prevalences are based on projections after 2018.
Figure 4:
Figure 4:
Proportion of metastatic prostate cancer (MPC) prevalence in 2018 that is diagnosed de novo metastatic by age group and race. MPC prevalence calculated assuming equal de novo and recurrent survival.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

References

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