The importance of re-evaluating the risk score in heart failure patients: An analysis from the Metabolic Exercise Cardiac Kidney Indexes (MECKI) score database

Abstract

Background: The role of risk scores in heart failure (HF) management has been highlighted by international guidelines. In contrast with HF, which is intrinsically a dynamic and unstable syndrome, all its prognostic studies have been based on a single evaluation. We investigated whether time-related changes of a well-recognized risk score, the MECKI score, added prognostic value. MECKI score is based on peak VO₂, VE/VCO₂ slope, Na⁺, LVEF, MDRD and Hb.

Methods: A multi-centre retrospective study was conducted involving 660 patients who performed MECKI re-evaluation at least 6 months apart. Based on the difference between II and I evaluation of MECKI values (MECKI II - MECKI I = ∆ MECKI) the study population was divided in 2 groups: those presenting a score reduction (∆ MECKI <0, i.e. clinical improvement), vs. patients presenting an increase (∆ MECKI >0, clinical deterioration).

Results: The prognostic value of MECKI score is confirmed also when re-assessed during follow-up. The group with improved MECKI (366 patients) showed a better prognosis compared to patients with worsened MECKI (294 patients) (p < 0.0001). At 1st evaluation, the two groups differentiated by LVEF, V_E/VCO₂ slope and blood Na⁺ concentration, while at 2nd evaluation they differentiated in all 6 parameters considered in the score. The patients who improved MECKI score, improved in all components of the score but hemoglobin, while patients who worsened the score, worsened all parameters.

Conclusions: This study shows that re-assessment of MECKI score identifies HF subjects at higher risk and that score improvement or deterioration regards several MECKI score generating parameters confirming the holistic background of HF.

Keywords: Exercise capacity; Heart failure; Hemoglobin; Prognosis; Renal function; Risk stratification.